PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Américo Montanini

Atlético Bucaramanga 1–2 Independiente Santa Fe · Primera A

1–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Independiente Santa Fe won 1–2.

Shots
149
Shots on target
55
Expected goals
0.960.8
Possession
60%40%

Full time

What the match recorded

Santa Fe beat Bucaramanga 2–1. Recorded in this match (Bucaramanga – Santa Fe): shots 14–9, shots on target 5–5, expected goals 0.96–0.8, possession 60%–40%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bucaramanga, Santa Fe.

3.09 days ▲Rest daysBucaramanga · Santa Fe4.17 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBucaramangaSanta FeBaseline
Rest days3.09 days4.17 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Bucaramanga's recent record differs from the season

weak

Bucaramanga's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.31 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.31 goals/match1.28 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots9 shotsAtlético Bucaramanga 14 shots, Independiente Santa Fe 9 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots5 shotsAtlético Bucaramanga 5 shots, Independiente Santa Fe 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.96 xG0.8 xGAtlético Bucaramanga 0.96 xG, Independiente Santa Fe 0.8 xG
  • Possession60%40%Atlético Bucaramanga 60%, Independiente Santa Fe 40%
  • Corners3 corners5 cornersAtlético Bucaramanga 3 corners, Independiente Santa Fe 5 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls19 foulsAtlético Bucaramanga 13 fouls, Independiente Santa Fe 19 fouls
  • Yellow cards5 cards3 cardsAtlético Bucaramanga 5 cards, Independiente Santa Fe 3 cards
  • Passes440 passes288 passesAtlético Bucaramanga 440 passes, Independiente Santa Fe 288 passes
  • Pass accuracy82%67%Atlético Bucaramanga 82%, Independiente Santa Fe 67%
  • Shots inside box6 shots4 shotsAtlético Bucaramanga 6 shots, Independiente Santa Fe 4 shots
  • Blocked shots1 block2 blocksAtlético Bucaramanga 1 block, Independiente Santa Fe 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves4 savesAtlético Bucaramanga 3 saves, Independiente Santa Fe 4 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides1 offsideAtlético Bucaramanga 0 offsides, Independiente Santa Fe 1 offside

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlético Bucaramanga favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Independiente Santa Fe in 4 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlético Bucaramanga13 matchesIndependiente Santa Fe13 matches
1.31 goals/match ▲Goals scored13/131.23 goals/match
0.77 goals/match ▲Goals allowed13/131.23 goals/match
0.89 xG/matchExpected goals8/11▲ 1.06 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShots13/1312.8 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲ 5 shots/match
53.2% ●Possession13/1350.2%
4.77 corners/matchCorners13/13● 5.62 corners/match
5.67 cards/matchCards3/54.2 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls13/1312.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Mar 2026, 05:10 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtlético BucaramangaIndependiente Santa Fe
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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