PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Cincuentenario

Rionegro Águilas Doradas 1–0 Alianza Valledupar FC · Primera A

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Rionegro Águilas Doradas won 1–0.

Shots
129
Shots on target
51
Expected goals
20.61
Possession
56%44%

Full time

What the match recorded

Águilas Doradas beat Alianza Valledupar 1–0. Recorded in this match (Águilas Doradas – Alianza Valledupar): shots 12–9, shots on target 5–1, expected goals 2–0.61, possession 56%–44%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Alianza Valledupar's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Alianza Valledupar's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.54 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match0.54 goals/match1.28 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Águilas Doradas, Alianza Valledupar.

3.9 days ▲Rest daysÁguilas Doradas · Alianza Valledupar5 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricÁguilas DoradasAlianza ValleduparBaseline
Rest days3.9 days5 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Águilas Doradas have a visible home split

moderate

Águilas Doradas's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots9 shotsRionegro Águilas Doradas 12 shots, Alianza Valledupar FC 9 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots1 shotRionegro Águilas Doradas 5 shots, Alianza Valledupar FC 1 shot
  • Expected goals2 xG0.61 xGRionegro Águilas Doradas 2 xG, Alianza Valledupar FC 0.61 xG
  • Possession56%44%Rionegro Águilas Doradas 56%, Alianza Valledupar FC 44%
  • Corners5 corners5 cornersRionegro Águilas Doradas 5 corners, Alianza Valledupar FC 5 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls9 foulsRionegro Águilas Doradas 12 fouls, Alianza Valledupar FC 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards1 cardRionegro Águilas Doradas 3 cards, Alianza Valledupar FC 1 card
  • Passes365 passes280 passesRionegro Águilas Doradas 365 passes, Alianza Valledupar FC 280 passes
  • Pass accuracy79%70%Rionegro Águilas Doradas 79%, Alianza Valledupar FC 70%
  • Shots inside box9 shots5 shotsRionegro Águilas Doradas 9 shots, Alianza Valledupar FC 5 shots
  • Blocked shots1 block3 blocksRionegro Águilas Doradas 1 block, Alianza Valledupar FC 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save4 savesRionegro Águilas Doradas 1 save, Alianza Valledupar FC 4 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides1 offsideRionegro Águilas Doradas 0 offsides, Alianza Valledupar FC 1 offside

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Rionegro Águilas Doradas favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Alianza Valledupar FC in 0 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Rionegro Águilas Doradas13 matchesAlianza Valledupar FC13 matches
1 goal/match ▲Goals scored13/130.54 goals/match
0.92 goals/match ▲Goals allowed13/131.54 goals/match
0.84 xG/match ▲Expected goals8/100.69 xG/match
11.8 shots/match ▲Shots13/1310.6 shots/match
3.31 shots/match ▲Shots on target13/132.85 shots/match
48.6% ●Possession13/1345.7%
4.23 corners/match ●Corners13/134.15 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/34.67 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls13/1311.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Mar 2026, 01:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRionegro Águilas DoradasAlianza Valledupar FC
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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