PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Municipal de Cota

Fortaleza CEIF 1–2 Deportivo Pasto · Primera A

1–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Deportivo Pasto won 1–2.

Shots
710
Shots on target
34
Expected goals
0.570.61
Possession
55%45%

Full time

What the match recorded

Deportivo Pasto beat Fortaleza FC 2–1. Recorded in this match (Fortaleza FC – Deportivo Pasto): shots 7–10, shots on target 3–4, expected goals 0.57–0.61, possession 55%–45%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Deportivo Pasto's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Deportivo Pasto's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.54 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.54 goals/match1.28 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots10 shotsFortaleza CEIF 7 shots, Deportivo Pasto 10 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots4 shotsFortaleza CEIF 3 shots, Deportivo Pasto 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.57 xG0.61 xGFortaleza CEIF 0.57 xG, Deportivo Pasto 0.61 xG
  • Possession55%45%Fortaleza CEIF 55%, Deportivo Pasto 45%
  • Corners5 corners1 cornerFortaleza CEIF 5 corners, Deportivo Pasto 1 corner
  • Fouls20 fouls10 foulsFortaleza CEIF 20 fouls, Deportivo Pasto 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards4 cardsFortaleza CEIF 2 cards, Deportivo Pasto 4 cards
  • Passes366 passes310 passesFortaleza CEIF 366 passes, Deportivo Pasto 310 passes
  • Pass accuracy79%75%Fortaleza CEIF 79%, Deportivo Pasto 75%
  • Shots inside box5 shots3 shotsFortaleza CEIF 5 shots, Deportivo Pasto 3 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks0 blocksFortaleza CEIF 2 blocks, Deportivo Pasto 0 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves2 savesFortaleza CEIF 2 saves, Deportivo Pasto 2 saves
  • Offsides1 offside1 offsideFortaleza CEIF 1 offside, Deportivo Pasto 1 offside

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fortaleza CEIF favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Deportivo Pasto in 6 · 6 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fortaleza CEIF13 matchesDeportivo Pasto13 matches
1.08 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲ 1.54 goals/match
1.54 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲ 1.15 goals/match
1 xG/matchExpected goals10/8▲ 1.51 xG/match
12.5 shots/matchShots13/1313.1 shots/match
3.92 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲ 4.15 shots/match
54.5% ●Possession13/1351.2%
4.54 corners/match ●Corners13/133.62 corners/match
3.17 cards/matchCards6/84.75 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls13/1311.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 25 Mar 2026, 05:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFortaleza CEIFDeportivo Pasto
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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