PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Deportes Tolima 2–0 Fortaleza CEIF · Primera A

2–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Deportes Tolima won 2–0.

Shots
129
Shots on target
51
Expected goals
1.620.47
Possession
65%35%

Full time

What the match recorded

Deportes Tolima beat Fortaleza FC 2–0. Recorded in this match (Deportes Tolima – Fortaleza FC): shots 12–9, shots on target 5–1, expected goals 1.62–0.47, possession 65%–35%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Deportes Tolima's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Deportes Tolima's last-five shots average is above their season average.

15.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots15.4 shots/match11.9 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Fortaleza FC.

4.09 days ▲Rest daysDeportes Tolima · Fortaleza FC3.91 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricDeportes TolimaFortaleza FCBaseline
Rest days4.09 days3.91 days—
Matches last 14 days1 match1 match—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Deportes Tolima have a visible home split

moderate

Deportes Tolima's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.4 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.4 shots/match11.9 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots9 shotsDeportes Tolima 12 shots, Fortaleza CEIF 9 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots1 shotDeportes Tolima 5 shots, Fortaleza CEIF 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.62 xG0.47 xGDeportes Tolima 1.62 xG, Fortaleza CEIF 0.47 xG
  • Possession65%35%Deportes Tolima 65%, Fortaleza CEIF 35%
  • Corners1 corner3 cornersDeportes Tolima 1 corner, Fortaleza CEIF 3 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls16 foulsDeportes Tolima 13 fouls, Fortaleza CEIF 16 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards1 cardDeportes Tolima 2 cards, Fortaleza CEIF 1 card
  • Passes568 passes294 passesDeportes Tolima 568 passes, Fortaleza CEIF 294 passes
  • Pass accuracy86%81%Deportes Tolima 86%, Fortaleza CEIF 81%
  • Shots inside box4 shots4 shotsDeportes Tolima 4 shots, Fortaleza CEIF 4 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks4 blocksDeportes Tolima 2 blocks, Fortaleza CEIF 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves0 saves3 savesDeportes Tolima 0 saves, Fortaleza CEIF 3 saves
  • Offsides1 offside3 offsidesDeportes Tolima 1 offside, Fortaleza CEIF 3 offsides

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Deportes Tolima favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Fortaleza CEIF in 5 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Deportes Tolima11 matchesFortaleza CEIF12 matches
1.27 goals/match ▲Goals scored11/121.08 goals/match
0.73 goals/match ▲Goals allowed11/121.5 goals/match
1.4 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/91.05 xG/match
11.9 shots/matchShots11/12▲ 12.9 shots/match
4.27 shots/match ▲Shots on target11/124 shots/match
52.4%Possession11/12● 54.5%
4.82 corners/match ●Corners11/124.5 corners/match
3.4 cards/matchCards5/53.4 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls11/1211.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples11 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 20 Mar 2026, 03:20 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsDeportes TolimaFortaleza CEIF
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required