PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Melendez

Junior Barranquilla 2–1 Fortaleza CEIF · Primera A

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Junior Barranquilla won 2–1.

Shots
1510
Shots on target
73
Expected goals
1.31.25
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

Junior beat Fortaleza FC 2–1. Recorded in this match (Junior – Fortaleza FC): shots 15–10, shots on target 7–3, expected goals 1.3–1.25, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fortaleza FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fortaleza FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.18 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.18 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots10 shotsJunior Barranquilla 15 shots, Fortaleza CEIF 10 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots3 shotsJunior Barranquilla 7 shots, Fortaleza CEIF 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.3 xG1.25 xGJunior Barranquilla 1.3 xG, Fortaleza CEIF 1.25 xG
  • Possession54%46%Junior Barranquilla 54%, Fortaleza CEIF 46%
  • Corners5 corners5 cornersJunior Barranquilla 5 corners, Fortaleza CEIF 5 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls8 foulsJunior Barranquilla 15 fouls, Fortaleza CEIF 8 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards4 cardsJunior Barranquilla 3 cards, Fortaleza CEIF 4 cards
  • Passes350 passes292 passesJunior Barranquilla 350 passes, Fortaleza CEIF 292 passes
  • Pass accuracy79%78%Junior Barranquilla 79%, Fortaleza CEIF 78%
  • Shots inside box7 shots6 shotsJunior Barranquilla 7 shots, Fortaleza CEIF 6 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks4 blocksJunior Barranquilla 2 blocks, Fortaleza CEIF 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves5 savesJunior Barranquilla 2 saves, Fortaleza CEIF 5 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides6 offsidesJunior Barranquilla 2 offsides, Fortaleza CEIF 6 offsides

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Junior Barranquilla favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Fortaleza CEIF in 3 · 6 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Junior Barranquilla11 matchesFortaleza CEIF11 matches
1.55 goals/match ▲Goals scored11/111.18 goals/match
1.45 goals/matchGoals allowed11/111.45 goals/match
1.41 xG/match ▲Expected goals9/81.12 xG/match
14.2 shots/match ▲Shots11/1113.3 shots/match
5.27 shots/match ▲Shots on target11/114.27 shots/match
54.3%Possession11/11● 56.3%
5 corners/match ●Corners11/114.64 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards3/53.4 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls11/1110.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 16 Mar 2026, 05:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsJunior BarranquillaFortaleza CEIF
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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