PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Independiente Medellín 2–0 Junior Barranquilla · Primera A

2–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Independiente Medellín won 2–0.

Shots
1812
Shots on target
72
Expected goals
1.20.94
Possession
41%59%

Full time

What the match recorded

Independiente Medellin beat Junior 2–0. Recorded in this match (Independiente Medellin – Junior): shots 18–12, shots on target 7–2, expected goals 1.2–0.94, possession 41%–59%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Independiente Medellin have a visible home split

moderate

Independiente Medellin's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

20.6 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season15.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots20.6 shots/match15.3 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Junior's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Junior's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.42 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.42 goals/match1.3 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Junior.

4.09 days ▲Rest daysIndependiente Medellin · Junior4 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricIndependiente MedellinJuniorBaseline
Rest days4.09 days4 days—
Matches last 14 days1 match2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots12 shotsIndependiente Medellín 18 shots, Junior Barranquilla 12 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots2 shotsIndependiente Medellín 7 shots, Junior Barranquilla 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.2 xG0.94 xGIndependiente Medellín 1.2 xG, Junior Barranquilla 0.94 xG
  • Possession41%59%Independiente Medellín 41%, Junior Barranquilla 59%
  • Corners6 corners6 cornersIndependiente Medellín 6 corners, Junior Barranquilla 6 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls9 foulsIndependiente Medellín 16 fouls, Junior Barranquilla 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards1 cardIndependiente Medellín 3 cards, Junior Barranquilla 1 card
  • Passes279 passes400 passesIndependiente Medellín 279 passes, Junior Barranquilla 400 passes
  • Pass accuracy76%82%Independiente Medellín 76%, Junior Barranquilla 82%
  • Shots inside box11 shots9 shotsIndependiente Medellín 11 shots, Junior Barranquilla 9 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks3 blocksIndependiente Medellín 3 blocks, Junior Barranquilla 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves5 savesIndependiente Medellín 2 saves, Junior Barranquilla 5 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides3 offsidesIndependiente Medellín 0 offsides, Junior Barranquilla 3 offsides

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Independiente Medellín favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Junior Barranquilla in 1 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Independiente Medellín11 matchesJunior Barranquilla12 matches
1.36 goals/matchGoals scored11/121.42 goals/match
1.36 goals/match ▲Goals allowed11/121.5 goals/match
1.27 xG/matchExpected goals7/10▲ 1.37 xG/match
15.3 shots/match ▲Shots11/1214 shots/match
5.18 shots/matchShots on target11/125 shots/match
54.6%Possession11/12● 54.7%
5.82 corners/match ●Corners11/125.08 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards5/32 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls11/1212.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples11 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 20 Mar 2026, 05:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsIndependiente MedellínJunior Barranquilla
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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