PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Palogrande

Once Caldas 3–0 Boyacá Chicó FC · Primera A

3–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Once Caldas won 3–0.

Shots
2013
Shots on target
103
Expected goals
2.110.35
Possession
62%38%

Full time

What the match recorded

Once Caldas beat Chico 3–0. Recorded in this match (Once Caldas – Chico): shots 20–13, shots on target 10–3, expected goals 2.11–0.35, possession 62%–38%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Chico's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Chico's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.78 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.78 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Once Caldas have a visible home split

moderate

Once Caldas's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18.4 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots18.4 shots/match14.4 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Once Caldas show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Once Caldas's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.4 shots/match ▲ShotsOnce Caldas · Chico9.56 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricOnce CaldasChicoBaseline
Shots14.4 shots/match9.56 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against12.8 shots/match15.1 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots13 shotsOnce Caldas 20 shots, Boyacá Chicó FC 13 shots
  • Shots on target10 shots3 shotsOnce Caldas 10 shots, Boyacá Chicó FC 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.11 xG0.35 xGOnce Caldas 2.11 xG, Boyacá Chicó FC 0.35 xG
  • Possession62%38%Once Caldas 62%, Boyacá Chicó FC 38%
  • Corners7 corners1 cornerOnce Caldas 7 corners, Boyacá Chicó FC 1 corner
  • Fouls16 fouls5 foulsOnce Caldas 16 fouls, Boyacá Chicó FC 5 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards4 cardsOnce Caldas 2 cards, Boyacá Chicó FC 4 cards
  • Passes435 passes272 passesOnce Caldas 435 passes, Boyacá Chicó FC 272 passes
  • Pass accuracy86%75%Once Caldas 86%, Boyacá Chicó FC 75%
  • Shots inside box11 shots3 shotsOnce Caldas 11 shots, Boyacá Chicó FC 3 shots
  • Blocked shots5 blocks5 blocksOnce Caldas 5 blocks, Boyacá Chicó FC 5 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves7 savesOnce Caldas 3 saves, Boyacá Chicó FC 7 saves
  • Offsides4 offsides1 offsideOnce Caldas 4 offsides, Boyacá Chicó FC 1 offside

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Once Caldas favored in 12 of 13 directional metrics · Boyacá Chicó FC in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Once Caldas9 matchesBoyacá Chicó FC9 matches
1.78 goals/match ▲Goals scored9/90.78 goals/match
1.11 goals/match ▲Goals allowed9/91.78 goals/match
1.04 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/70.53 xG/match
14.4 shots/match ▲Shots9/99.56 shots/match
6.22 shots/match ▲Shots on target9/92.89 shots/match
54.3% ●Possession9/944.6%
6.78 corners/match ●Corners9/92.56 corners/match
3.33 cards/matchCards3/32.67 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls9/913.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 05:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsOnce CaldasBoyacá Chicó FC
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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