PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Palogrande

Once Caldas 4–2 Fortaleza CEIF · Primera A

4–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Once Caldas won 4–2.

Shots
149
Shots on target
75
Expected goals
1.421.33
Possession
59%41%

Full time

What the match recorded

Once Caldas beat Fortaleza FC 4–2. Recorded in this match (Once Caldas – Fortaleza FC): shots 14–9, shots on target 7–5, expected goals 1.42–1.33, possession 59%–41%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Once Caldas have a visible home split

weak

Once Caldas's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots18 shots/match13.8 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Fortaleza FC's recent record differs from the season

weak

Fortaleza FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.13 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.13 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Once Caldas, Fortaleza FC.

5.9 days ▲Rest daysOnce Caldas · Fortaleza FC5.73 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricOnce CaldasFortaleza FCBaseline
Rest days5.9 days5.73 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots9 shotsOnce Caldas 14 shots, Fortaleza CEIF 9 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots5 shotsOnce Caldas 7 shots, Fortaleza CEIF 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.42 xG1.33 xGOnce Caldas 1.42 xG, Fortaleza CEIF 1.33 xG
  • Possession59%41%Once Caldas 59%, Fortaleza CEIF 41%
  • Corners5 corners1 cornerOnce Caldas 5 corners, Fortaleza CEIF 1 corner
  • Fouls17 fouls11 foulsOnce Caldas 17 fouls, Fortaleza CEIF 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards5 cards1 cardOnce Caldas 5 cards, Fortaleza CEIF 1 card
  • Passes411 passes291 passesOnce Caldas 411 passes, Fortaleza CEIF 291 passes
  • Pass accuracy87%78%Once Caldas 87%, Fortaleza CEIF 78%
  • Shots inside box9 shots8 shotsOnce Caldas 9 shots, Fortaleza CEIF 8 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks2 blocksOnce Caldas 4 blocks, Fortaleza CEIF 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves3 savesOnce Caldas 3 saves, Fortaleza CEIF 3 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides0 offsidesOnce Caldas 2 offsides, Fortaleza CEIF 0 offsides

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Once Caldas favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Fortaleza CEIF in 5 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Once Caldas8 matchesFortaleza CEIF8 matches
1.63 goals/match ▲Goals scored8/81.13 goals/match
1.25 goals/match ▲Goals allowed8/81.5 goals/match
0.86 xG/matchExpected goals6/5▲ 1.29 xG/match
13.8 shots/matchShots8/814.1 shots/match
5.75 shots/match ▲Shots on target8/84.38 shots/match
53.4%Possession8/8● 56.9%
6.75 corners/match ●Corners8/84.25 corners/match
3.33 cards/matchCards3/43.5 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls8/811.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Feb 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsOnce CaldasFortaleza CEIF
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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