PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Deportes Tolima 2–1 Once Caldas · Primera A

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Deportes Tolima won 2–1.

Shots
219
Shots on target
64
Expected goals
1.780.66
Possession
59%41%

Full time

What the match recorded

Deportes Tolima beat Once Caldas 2–1. Recorded in this match (Deportes Tolima – Once Caldas): shots 21–9, shots on target 6–4, expected goals 1.78–0.66, possession 59%–41%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Deportes Tolima have a visible home split

weak

Deportes Tolima's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season10.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16 shots/match10.7 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Deportes Tolima's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Deportes Tolima's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.14 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.14 goals/match1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Deportes Tolima, Once Caldas.

4.83 days ▲Rest daysDeportes Tolima · Once Caldas2.92 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricDeportes TolimaOnce CaldasBaseline
Rest days4.83 days2.92 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots9 shotsDeportes Tolima 21 shots, Once Caldas 9 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots4 shotsDeportes Tolima 6 shots, Once Caldas 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.78 xG0.66 xGDeportes Tolima 1.78 xG, Once Caldas 0.66 xG
  • Possession59%41%Deportes Tolima 59%, Once Caldas 41%
  • Corners6 corners5 cornersDeportes Tolima 6 corners, Once Caldas 5 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls5 foulsDeportes Tolima 9 fouls, Once Caldas 5 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards4 cardsDeportes Tolima 2 cards, Once Caldas 4 cards
  • Passes489 passes333 passesDeportes Tolima 489 passes, Once Caldas 333 passes
  • Pass accuracy88%78%Deportes Tolima 88%, Once Caldas 78%
  • Shots inside box9 shots7 shotsDeportes Tolima 9 shots, Once Caldas 7 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks3 blocksDeportes Tolima 4 blocks, Once Caldas 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves4 savesDeportes Tolima 3 saves, Once Caldas 4 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides3 offsidesDeportes Tolima 3 offsides, Once Caldas 3 offsides

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Deportes Tolima favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Once Caldas in 6 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Deportes Tolima7 matchesOnce Caldas7 matches
1.14 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲ 1.29 goals/match
0.57 goals/match ▲Goals allowed7/71.14 goals/match
1.26 xG/match ▲Expected goals3/50.75 xG/match
10.7 shots/matchShots7/7▲ 13.7 shots/match
4.14 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲ 5.57 shots/match
48.7%Possession7/7● 52.6%
4.14 corners/matchCorners7/7● 7 corners/match
3.5 cards/matchCards4/33.33 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls7/710 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 16 Feb 2026, 01:20 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsDeportes TolimaOnce Caldas
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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