PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Deportivo Cali

Deportivo Cali 1–0 Atlético Nacional · Primera A

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Deportivo Cali won 1–0.

Shots
1315
Shots on target
46
Expected goals
0.611.06
Possession
41%59%

Full time

What the match recorded

Deportivo Cali beat Atletico Nacional 1–0. Recorded in this match (Deportivo Cali – Atletico Nacional): shots 13–15, shots on target 4–6, expected goals 0.61–1.06, possession 41%–59%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Deportivo Cali, Atletico Nacional.

3.92 days ▲Rest daysDeportivo Cali · Atletico Nacional2.92 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricDeportivo CaliAtletico NacionalBaseline
Rest days3.92 days2.92 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Atletico Nacional show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Atletico Nacional's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.4 shots/match ▲ShotsDeportivo Cali · Atletico Nacional20.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricDeportivo CaliAtletico NacionalBaseline
Shots12.4 shots/match20.3 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against10.3 shots/match9.75 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots15 shotsDeportivo Cali 13 shots, Atlético Nacional 15 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots6 shotsDeportivo Cali 4 shots, Atlético Nacional 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.61 xG1.06 xGDeportivo Cali 0.61 xG, Atlético Nacional 1.06 xG
  • Possession41%59%Deportivo Cali 41%, Atlético Nacional 59%
  • Corners5 corners9 cornersDeportivo Cali 5 corners, Atlético Nacional 9 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls14 foulsDeportivo Cali 13 fouls, Atlético Nacional 14 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards5 cardsDeportivo Cali 4 cards, Atlético Nacional 5 cards
  • Passes282 passes404 passesDeportivo Cali 282 passes, Atlético Nacional 404 passes
  • Pass accuracy72%78%Deportivo Cali 72%, Atlético Nacional 78%
  • Shots inside box6 shots10 shotsDeportivo Cali 6 shots, Atlético Nacional 10 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks6 blocksDeportivo Cali 3 blocks, Atlético Nacional 6 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves6 saves3 savesDeportivo Cali 6 saves, Atlético Nacional 3 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides1 offsideDeportivo Cali 3 offsides, Atlético Nacional 1 offside

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Deportivo Cali favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Atlético Nacional in 0 · 13 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Deportivo Cali7 matchesAtlético Nacional4 matches
1.43 goals/matchGoals scored7/4▲ 2.5 goals/match
1 goal/matchGoals allowed7/4▲ 0.75 goals/match
0.86 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲ 2.38 xG/match
12.4 shots/matchShots7/4▲ 20.3 shots/match
4.71 shots/matchShots on target7/4▲ 9 shots/match
53.7%Possession7/4● 55.3%
4.57 corners/matchCorners7/4● 5.75 corners/match
15.6 fouls/matchFouls7/413.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 16 Feb 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsDeportivo CaliAtlético Nacional
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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