PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Atlético Nacional 4–1 Fortaleza CEIF · Primera A

4–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Atlético Nacional won 4–1.

Shots
1710
Shots on target
92
Expected goals
3.140.69
Possession
55%45%

Full time

What the match recorded

Atletico Nacional beat Fortaleza FC 4–1. Recorded in this match (Atletico Nacional – Fortaleza FC): shots 17–10, shots on target 9–2, expected goals 3.14–0.69, possession 55%–45%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Atletico Nacional show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Atletico Nacional's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

22 shots/match ▲ShotsAtletico Nacional · Fortaleza FC14.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAtletico NacionalFortaleza FCBaseline
Shots22 shots/match14.7 shots/match11.2 shots/match
Shots against8.67 shots/match8.5 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

4.67 corners/matchCornersAtletico Nacional · Fortaleza FC● 4.83 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricAtletico NacionalFortaleza FCBaseline
Corners4.67 corners/match4.83 corners/match4 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots10 shotsAtlético Nacional 17 shots, Fortaleza CEIF 10 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots2 shotsAtlético Nacional 9 shots, Fortaleza CEIF 2 shots
  • Expected goals3.14 xG0.69 xGAtlético Nacional 3.14 xG, Fortaleza CEIF 0.69 xG
  • Possession55%45%Atlético Nacional 55%, Fortaleza CEIF 45%
  • Corners3 corners2 cornersAtlético Nacional 3 corners, Fortaleza CEIF 2 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls11 foulsAtlético Nacional 13 fouls, Fortaleza CEIF 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards3 cardsAtlético Nacional 2 cards, Fortaleza CEIF 3 cards
  • Passes397 passes327 passesAtlético Nacional 397 passes, Fortaleza CEIF 327 passes
  • Pass accuracy87%83%Atlético Nacional 87%, Fortaleza CEIF 83%
  • Shots inside box14 shots8 shotsAtlético Nacional 14 shots, Fortaleza CEIF 8 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks2 blocksAtlético Nacional 2 blocks, Fortaleza CEIF 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save4 savesAtlético Nacional 1 save, Fortaleza CEIF 4 saves
  • Offsides6 offsides3 offsidesAtlético Nacional 6 offsides, Fortaleza CEIF 3 offsides

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlético Nacional favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Fortaleza CEIF in 0 · 13 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlético Nacional3 matchesFortaleza CEIF6 matches
3.33 goals/match ▲Goals scored3/60.83 goals/match
0.67 goals/match ▲Goals allowed3/61.17 goals/match
2.82 xG/match ▲Expected goals3/31.19 xG/match
22 shots/match ▲Shots3/614.7 shots/match
10 shots/match ▲Shots on target3/63.83 shots/match
54%Possession3/6● 58.5%
4.67 corners/matchCorners3/6● 4.83 corners/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls3/611.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples3 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 13 Feb 2026, 05:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtlético NacionalFortaleza CEIF
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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