Allsvenskan · 2026Sat, 4 Jul 2026, 13:00 UTCFull timeStora VallaFull-time recap

Degerfors IF

DLDLD

0–1Full-time recap

Malmo FF

LLLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Degerfors IF	Malmo FF
Shots	7 shots/match	15 shots/match▲
Shots on target	0 shots/match	3 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.93 xG/match	3.81 xG/match▲
Possession	38%	62%
Corners	7 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Malmo FF's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Malmo FF's recent record differs from the season

weak

Malmo FF's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.91 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.2 goals/match	1.91 goals/match	1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Degerfors IF favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Malmo FF in 6 · 3 too close

1.09 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 11/11▲1.91 goals/match

1.55 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 11/111.82 goals/match

0.91 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 9/5▲2.52 xG/match

1.53 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 9/52.09 xG/match

11.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/11▲13.7 shots/match

11.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 11/1114.8 shots/match

3.18 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/11▲4.73 shots/match

4.27 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 11/115.73 shots/match

47.7%Possessionseason · 11/1153.8%

4.55 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/114.64 corners/match

4.36 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 11/116.36 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

14.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1113.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

9%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/11▲27%

73%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/11▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Degerfors IF34.4

Malmo FF78.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Degerfors IF12.5

Malmo FF53.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Degerfors IF65.6

Malmo FF21.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Degerfors IF21.9

Malmo FF40.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Degerfors IF90.6

Malmo FF81.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Degerfors IF28.1

Malmo FF37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Degerfors IF35.1

Malmo FF51.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.2 goals/match

2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match

1.04 xG/matchExpected goals3/4▲2.38 xG/match

12.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲14 shots/match

3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.2 shots/match

46.6%Possession5/559.6%

4.8 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.6 fouls/matchFouls5/514 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2 goals/match

1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match

1.01 xG/matchExpected goals8/5▲2.52 xG/match

11.6 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.2 shots/match

3.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.6 shots/match

47.8%Possession10/1053.4%

4.4 corners/matchCorners10/104.1 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 11 matches

1.09 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲1.91 goals/match

1.55 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.82 goals/match

0.91 xG/matchExpected goals9/5▲2.52 xG/match

11.2 shots/matchShots11/11▲13.7 shots/match

3.18 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲4.73 shots/match

47.7%Possession11/1153.8%

4.55 corners/matchCorners11/114.64 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

14.2 fouls/matchFouls11/1113.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 6 matches

0.86 goals/matchGoals scored7/6▲1.17 goals/match

1.86 goals/matchGoals allowed7/6▲1.33 goals/match

0.81 xG/matchExpected goals6/3▲2.09 xG/match

10.6 shots/matchShots7/6▲12.5 shots/match

1.86 shots/matchShots on target7/6▲3.83 shots/match

46.1%Possession7/651.7%

4.71 corners/matchCorners7/65 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

16.3 fouls/matchFouls7/611.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

34 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/135 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples11 / 11home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Jul 2026, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4