PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC · Major League Soccer

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.521.76
Expected goals
1.21.56
Shots
12.111.9
Possession
45.7%48.6%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: orlando City SC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Orlando City SC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Orlando City SC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.76 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.76 goals/match1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Toronto FC favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Orlando City SC in 5 · 3 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Toronto FC25 matchesOrlando City SC25 matches
1.52 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲ 1.76 goals/match
1.84 goals/match ▲Goals allowed25/252.24 goals/match
1.2 xG/matchExpected goals23/21▲ 1.56 xG/match
12.1 shots/matchShots25/2411.9 shots/match
4.48 shots/matchShots on target25/24▲ 4.92 shots/match
45.7%Possession25/24● 48.6%
4.92 corners/match ●Corners25/244 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards6/42.75 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls25/2410.4 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Toronto FC
0Draws
3Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer3–0
Toronto FC — Orlando City SC · Major League Soccer4–2
Orlando City SC — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer4–2
Toronto FC — Orlando City SC · Major League Soccer1–2
Orlando City SC — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness32 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 14 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsToronto FCOrlando City SC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headToronto FC — Orlando City SC
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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