Major League Soccer · 2026Fri, 18 Sept 2026, 23:30 UTCScheduledPre-match analysis

New York City FC

WDLWL

vsPre-match analysis

New York Red Bulls

WDWLL

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: new York City FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Alongside it: new York City FC's last-five shots average is below their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

New York City FC have a visible home split

moderate

New York City FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.1 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	14.1 shots/match	11.5 shots/match	12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

New York City FC's recent record differs from the season

weak

New York City FC's last-five shots average is below their season average.

9.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	9.2 shots/match	11.5 shots/match	12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

Last 5 meetings

3New York City FC

1Draws

1New York Red Bulls

16 May 2026New York Red Bulls — New York City FC · Major League Soccer1–1

27 Sept 2025New York Red Bulls — New York City FC · Major League Soccer2–3

17 May 2025New York City FC — New York Red Bulls · Major League Soccer2–0

23 Nov 2024New York City FC — New York Red Bulls · Major League Soccer0–2

28 Sept 2024New York Red Bulls — New York City FC · Major League Soccer1–5

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Season: New York City FC favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · New York Red Bulls in 2 · 3 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

New York City FC17 matchesNew York Red Bulls17 matches

1.71 goals/match ▲Goals scored17/171.59 goals/match

1.47 goals/match ▲Goals allowed17/172.18 goals/match

1.2 xG/matchExpected goals14/14▲ 1.52 xG/match

11.5 shots/matchShots17/17▲ 13.1 shots/match

4.94 shots/matchShots on target17/174.88 shots/match

55.5% ●Possession17/1753.3%

3.59 corners/matchCorners17/17● 6.12 corners/match

2.5 cards/matchCards4/51.8 cards/match

11.9 fouls/matchFouls17/1712.3 fouls/match

Style profile

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

New York City FC85.0

New York Red Bulls75.0

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

New York City FC51.1

New York Red Bulls56.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

New York City FC50.0

New York Red Bulls19.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

New York City FC5.0

New York Red Bulls35.0

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

New York City FC49.1

New York Red Bulls35.0

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 62%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

New York City FC1.7

New York Red Bulls95.0

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

New York City FC34.2

New York Red Bulls67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 0 matches

33.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/134 days

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited

Season samples17 / 17home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness34 daysstale at cutoff

At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.

Analysis cutoff: Fri, 18 Sept 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4