Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 5 Sept 2026, 23:30 UTCScheduledPre-match analysis

Charlotte FC

DLWWD

vsPre-match analysis

Houston Dynamo

LWDDW

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Houston Dynamo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Charlotte FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Houston Dynamo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Houston Dynamo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	1.38 goals/match	1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Charlotte FC have a visible home split

moderate

Charlotte FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.7 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	13.7 shots/match	11.5 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Charlotte FC favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Houston Dynamo in 4 · 6 too close

1.63 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/161.38 goals/match

1.56 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/161.5 goals/match

1.61 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 13/141.07 xG/match

1.22 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 13/141.18 xG/match

11.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/16▲13.4 shots/match

13.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/16▲12 shots/match

4.88 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/165 shots/match

5.38 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/16▲3.94 shots/match

47.3%●Possessionseason · 16/1644.9%

4.75 corners/match●Cornersseason · 16/164.38 corners/match

4.25 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 16/165.06 corners/match

2.4 cards/matchCardsseason · 5/63 cards/match

9.63 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1610.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/16▲31%

75%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1675%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Charlotte FC31.7

Houston Dynamo11.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Charlotte FC47.2

Houston Dynamo56.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Charlotte FC33.9

Houston Dynamo70.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Charlotte FC28.3

Houston Dynamo88.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Charlotte FC25.9

Houston Dynamo50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 66%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Charlotte FC48.3

Houston Dynamo21.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Charlotte FC35.8

Houston Dynamo44.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Charlotte FC16 matchesHouston Dynamo16 matches

1.63 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.38 goals/match

1.56 goals/matchGoals allowed16/161.5 goals/match

1.61 xG/match▲Expected goals13/141.07 xG/match

11.5 shots/matchShots16/16▲13.4 shots/match

4.88 shots/matchShots on target16/165 shots/match

47.3%●Possession16/1644.9%

4.75 corners/match●Corners16/164.38 corners/match

2.4 cards/matchCards5/63 cards/match

9.63 fouls/matchFouls16/1610.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Charlotte FC10 matchesHouston Dynamo8 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/81.63 goals/match

1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/82.13 goals/match

1.82 xG/match▲Expected goals9/81.2 xG/match

13.7 shots/matchShots10/813.6 shots/match

6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/85.5 shots/match

49.6%●Possession10/845.8%

5.8 corners/match●Corners10/83.75 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards3/1—

8.9 fouls/matchFouls10/810.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

45 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/128.1 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples16 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness45 daysstale at cutoff

At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 5 Sept 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4