PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Sun, 2 Aug 2026, 00:30 UTCScheduledCITYPARKPre-match analysis
vsPre-match analysis

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: St. Louis City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

St. Louis City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

St. Louis City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.38 goals/match1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

St. Louis City favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Real Salt Lake in 6 · 6 too close

1.38 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/15▲1.8 goals/match
1.44 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/151.47 goals/match
1.62 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 13/12▲1.75 xG/match
1.18 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 13/121.21 xG/match
14.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/15▲16.1 shots/match
11.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 16/1512.2 shots/match
4.63 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/15▲5.93 shots/match
4.19 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/154.33 shots/match
49.8%Possessionseason · 16/1551.3%
5.88 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/154.73 corners/match
4.5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 16/155.2 corners/match
3.2 cards/matchCardsseason · 5/42.75 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1511.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/15▲13%
75%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/15▲87%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

St. Louis City48.3
Real Salt Lake61.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

St. Louis City52.8
Real Salt Lake83.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

St. Louis City76.1
Real Salt Lake64.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

St. Louis City75
Real Salt Lake91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

St. Louis City83.3
Real Salt Lake54.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 63%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

St. Louis City86.7
Real Salt Lake45
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

St. Louis City71.7
Real Salt Lake69.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.6 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
1.65 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.08 xG/match
15 shots/match▲Shots5/514.2 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
49.6%Possession5/557.8%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match
—Cards1/0—
14.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
1.75 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.62 xG/match
14.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲16 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.2 shots/match
50.4%Possession10/1055%
6 corners/matchCorners10/104.4 corners/match
—Cards2/0—
14.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 15 matches
1.38 goals/matchGoals scored16/15▲1.8 goals/match
1.44 goals/matchGoals allowed16/151.47 goals/match
1.62 xG/matchExpected goals13/12▲1.75 xG/match
14.1 shots/matchShots16/15▲16.1 shots/match
4.63 shots/matchShots on target16/15▲5.93 shots/match
49.8%Possession16/1551.3%
5.88 corners/matchCorners16/154.73 corners/match
3.2 cards/matchCards5/42.75 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls16/1511.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.29 goals/match
1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72 goals/match
1.7 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.52 xG/match
15.7 shots/match▲Shots7/714.6 shots/match
5.86 shots/match▲Shots on target7/74.43 shots/match
51%Possession7/752.7%
5.71 corners/matchCorners7/75.29 corners/match
—Cards2/32.67 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls7/710.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

9.92 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/19.92 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness10 daysfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 2 Aug 2026, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsSt. Louis CityReal Salt Lake
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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