PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Thu, 23 Jul 2026, 02:30 UTCFull timePayPal ParkFull-time recap
0–4Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricSan Jose EarthquakesOrlando City SC
Shots11 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target7 shots/match8 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.18 xG/match1.61 xG/match▲
Possession52%48%
Corners3 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls20 fouls/match10 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: San Jose Earthquakes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Orlando City SC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

San Jose Earthquakes have a visible home split

moderate

San Jose Earthquakes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots18.5 shots/match13.8 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Orlando City SC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Orlando City SC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.69 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.69 goals/match1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

San Jose Earthquakes show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

San Jose Earthquakes's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.8 shots/match▲ShotsSan Jose Earthquakes · Orlando City SC11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSan Jose EarthquakesOrlando City SCBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match11.1 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against12.4 shots/match18.6 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

San Jose Earthquakes favored in 11 of 14 directional metrics · Orlando City SC in 0 · 3 too close

2.13 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/161.69 goals/match
1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/162.75 goals/match
1.76 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 13/131.29 xG/match
1.4 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 13/131.88 xG/match
13.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 16/1611.1 shots/match
12.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 16/1618.6 shots/match
5.69 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 16/164.63 shots/match
4.38 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 16/167.25 shots/match
46.8%Possessionseason · 16/1645.3%
7.13 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/163.69 corners/match
4.75 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 16/167.31 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/33 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1610.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
31%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/166%
88%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1669%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

San Jose Earthquakes25
Orlando City SC15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

San Jose Earthquakes83.3
Orlando City SC39.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

San Jose Earthquakes66.7
Orlando City SC1.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

San Jose Earthquakes78.3
Orlando City SC35
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

San Jose Earthquakes31.7
Orlando City SC51.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 59%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

San Jose Earthquakes98.3
Orlando City SC5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

San Jose Earthquakes77.9
Orlando City SC21.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.2 goals/match
2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/52.4 goals/match
1.27 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.55 xG/match
10.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲11.2 shots/match
5.2 shots/matchShots on target5/55 shots/match
41.2%Possession5/547.8%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/102.2 goals/match
1.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.1 goals/match
1.72 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.31 xG/match
13 shots/match▲Shots10/1011 shots/match
5.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.9 shots/match
46.7%Possession10/1047.3%
6.2 corners/matchCorners10/103.5 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1011 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches
2.13 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.69 goals/match
1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/162.75 goals/match
1.76 xG/match▲Expected goals13/131.29 xG/match
13.8 shots/match▲Shots16/1611.1 shots/match
5.69 shots/match▲Shots on target16/164.63 shots/match
46.8%Possession16/1645.3%
7.13 corners/matchCorners16/163.69 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/33 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls16/1610.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 9 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored8/91.44 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/93.44 goals/match
2.43 xG/match▲Expected goals6/81.04 xG/match
18.5 shots/match▲Shots8/99.78 shots/match
7.63 shots/match▲Shots on target8/94.33 shots/match
49.6%Possession8/944.3%
9.5 corners/matchCorners8/94.22 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards3/1—
13.4 fouls/matchFouls8/910.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

60 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/160.1 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 23 Jul 2026, 06:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsSan Jose EarthquakesOrlando City SC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match