Major League Soccer · 2026Wed, 22 Jul 2026, 23:30 UTCFull timeNu StadiumFull-time recap

Inter Miami

LWWWW

3–2Full-time recap

Chicago Fire

LLWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Inter Miami	Chicago Fire
Shots	14 shots/match	15 shots/match▲
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	2.11 xG/match▲	1.9 xG/match
Possession	53%	47%
Corners	8 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	16 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Inter Miami's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Inter Miami's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Inter Miami's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Inter Miami's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.63 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	4 goals/match	2.63 goals/match	1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Inter Miami have a visible home split

moderate

Inter Miami's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

19.7 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season16.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	19.7 shots/match	16.1 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Inter Miami favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Chicago Fire in 6 · 3 too close

2.63 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/151.93 goals/match

1.88 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/15▲1.27 goals/match

2.38 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 13/122.01 xG/match

1.55 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 13/12▲1.4 xG/match

16.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 16/1514.8 shots/match

12.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/15▲12.1 shots/match

6.88 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 16/155.13 shots/match

4.94 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/15▲4.53 shots/match

57.4%Possessionseason · 16/1552.7%

6 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/154.53 corners/match

3.38 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 16/155.87 corners/match

3 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/42.25 cards/match

12.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1513 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/15▲40%

88%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/15▲93%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Inter Miami91.7

Chicago Fire70

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Inter Miami97.2

Chicago Fire79.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Inter Miami33.9

Chicago Fire63.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Inter Miami71.7

Chicago Fire68.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Inter Miami75

Chicago Fire55

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 63%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Inter Miami91.7

Chicago Fire35

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Inter Miami88.3

Chicago Fire66.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/52 goals/match

2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match

2.82 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.6 xG/match

16 shots/match▲Shots5/514.2 shots/match

7.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/55.2 shots/match

55%Possession5/553%

6 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13 fouls/matchFouls5/511.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

3.1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/102.2 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.4 goals/match

2.5 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.96 xG/match

16.5 shots/matchShots10/1016.6 shots/match

7.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/105.4 shots/match

55.1%Possession10/1052.1%

6.5 corners/matchCorners10/104.5 corners/match

—Cards1/1—

13.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 15 matches

2.63 goals/match▲Goals scored16/151.93 goals/match

1.88 goals/matchGoals allowed16/15▲1.27 goals/match

2.38 xG/match▲Expected goals13/122.01 xG/match

16.1 shots/match▲Shots16/1514.8 shots/match

6.88 shots/match▲Shots on target16/155.13 shots/match

57.4%Possession16/1552.7%

6 corners/matchCorners16/154.53 corners/match

3 cards/matchCards4/42.25 cards/match

12.8 fouls/matchFouls16/1513 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches

2.71 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.86 goals/match

2.14 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲1.43 goals/match

3.12 xG/match▲Expected goals7/51.92 xG/match

19.7 shots/match▲Shots7/711.9 shots/match

8.57 shots/match▲Shots on target7/74.57 shots/match

59.4%Possession7/750.4%

7.86 corners/matchCorners7/73.71 corners/match

—Cards0/2—

12.6 fouls/matchFouls7/713.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

59 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/160 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples16 / 15home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Thu, 23 Jul 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

Inter Miami's recent record differs from the season

Inter Miami have a visible home split

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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