Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 25 Jul 2026, 23:30 UTCScheduledSaputo StadiumPre-match analysis

CF Montreal

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vsPre-match analysis

Inter Miami

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What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Inter Miami's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for CF Montreal, Inter Miami. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Inter Miami's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Inter Miami's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.63 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	4 goals/match	2.63 goals/match	1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for CF Montreal, Inter Miami.

2.96 days▲Rest daysCF Montreal · Inter Miami3 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	CF Montreal	Inter Miami	Baseline
Rest days	2.96 days	3 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	1 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Inter Miami have a visible away split

moderate

Inter Miami's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

13.3 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season16.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	13.3 shots/match	16.1 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

CF Montreal favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Inter Miami in 7 · 4 too close

1.38 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/16▲2.63 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/16▲1.88 goals/match

1.47 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 13/13▲2.38 xG/match

1.33 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 13/131.55 xG/match

12.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/16▲16.1 shots/match

12 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 16/1612.8 shots/match

4.44 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/16▲6.88 shots/match

4.81 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/164.94 shots/match

47.8%Possessionseason · 16/1657.4%

5.13 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/166 corners/match

4.44 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/16▲3.38 corners/match

2.33 cards/matchCardsseason · 6/43 cards/match

13.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1612.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

25%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/1619%

63%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/16▲88%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

CF Montreal38.3

Inter Miami91.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

CF Montreal36.7

Inter Miami97.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

CF Montreal40

Inter Miami33.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

CF Montreal55

Inter Miami71.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

CF Montreal63.4

Inter Miami75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 63%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

CF Montreal58.3

Inter Miami91.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

CF Montreal55

Inter Miami88.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲4 goals/match

1.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match

1.49 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲2.82 xG/match

16 shots/matchShots5/516 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲7.6 shots/match

49%Possession5/555%

7.2 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.8 fouls/matchFouls5/513 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.5 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲3.1 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102 goals/match

1.53 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲2.5 xG/match

13.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲16.5 shots/match

4.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲7.5 shots/match

46.2%Possession10/1055.1%

5.6 corners/matchCorners10/106.5 corners/match

—Cards2/1—

13.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches

1.38 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲2.63 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲1.88 goals/match

1.47 xG/matchExpected goals13/13▲2.38 xG/match

12.9 shots/matchShots16/16▲16.1 shots/match

4.44 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲6.88 shots/match

47.8%Possession16/1657.4%

5.13 corners/matchCorners16/166 corners/match

2.33 cards/matchCards6/43 cards/match

13.9 fouls/matchFouls16/1612.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 9 matches

1.43 goals/matchGoals scored7/9▲2.56 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/91.67 goals/match

1.51 xG/matchExpected goals7/61.52 xG/match

13.9 shots/matchShots7/913.3 shots/match

4.86 shots/matchShots on target7/9▲5.56 shots/match

46.1%Possession7/955.8%

6.86 corners/matchCorners7/94.56 corners/match

—Cards1/43 cards/match

14.9 fouls/matchFouls7/913 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples16 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness3 daysfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Jul 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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What the record shows

Inter Miami's recent record differs from the season

Recent scheduling adds useful context

Inter Miami have a visible away split

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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