La Liga · 2025Fri, 13 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeEstadio MendizorrotzaFull-time recap

Alaves

LDDLL

1–1Full-time recap

Villarreal

LWWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Alaves	Villarreal
Shots	8 shots/match	10 shots/match▲
Shots on target	0 shots/match	4 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.21 xG/match	0.54 xG/match▲
Possession	48%	52%
Corners	5 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	19 fouls/match	11 fouls/match
Yellow cards	4 cards/match	1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Alaves's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Villarreal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Alaves's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Alaves's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.93 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	0.93 goals/match	1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Villarreal have a visible away split

moderate

Villarreal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	9.5 shots/match	12 shots/match	11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Alaves

0Draws

1Villarreal

10 Jan 2026Villarreal — Alaves · La Liga3–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Alaves favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Villarreal in 8 · 6 too close

0.93 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 28/28▲1.82 goals/match

1.36 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 28/28▲1.18 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 1/1—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 1/1—

11.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 28/2812 shots/match

12.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 28/2812.7 shots/match

3.82 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 28/28▲4.46 shots/match

4.07 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 28/28▲3.61 shots/match

50.5%Possessionseason · 28/2843.9%

4.96 corners/matchCornersseason · 28/283.93 corners/match

4.82 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 28/28▲4.46 corners/match

2.63 cards/matchCardsseason · 27/27▲2.44 cards/match

15.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2812.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

11%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/28▲29%

64%Scoring frequencyseason · 28/28▲86%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Alaves62.5

Villarreal17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Alaves34.2

Villarreal69.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Alaves52.5

Villarreal67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Alaves37.5

Villarreal72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Alaves88.8

Villarreal52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Alaves62.5

Villarreal27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Alaves62.5

Villarreal48.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

12.8 shots/match▲Shots5/511.8 shots/match

3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.6 shots/match

51.4%Possession5/539.8%

4.6 corners/matchCorners5/53 corners/match

4.25 cards/matchCards4/42 cards/match

16.6 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match

1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.6 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

12.9 shots/match▲Shots10/109.9 shots/match

4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.6 shots/match

51.4%Possession10/1043.9%

4.9 corners/matchCorners10/103.5 corners/match

2.67 cards/matchCards9/92.44 cards/match

15.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

28 / 28 matches

0.93 goals/matchGoals scored28/28▲1.82 goals/match

1.36 goals/matchGoals allowed28/28▲1.18 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

11.8 shots/matchShots28/2812 shots/match

3.82 shots/matchShots on target28/28▲4.46 shots/match

50.5%Possession28/2843.9%

4.96 corners/matchCorners28/283.93 corners/match

2.63 cards/matchCards27/272.44 cards/match

15.5 fouls/matchFouls28/2812.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches

1.21 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲1.43 goals/match

1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.5 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

12.6 shots/match▲Shots14/149.5 shots/match

4.07 shots/match▲Shots on target14/143.43 shots/match

50.8%Possession14/1439.8%

5.79 corners/matchCorners14/142.64 corners/match

2.15 cards/matchCards13/133.31 cards/match

15.9 fouls/matchFouls14/1412.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.29 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples28 / 28home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Mar 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4