PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sun, 8 Mar 2026, 13:00 UTCFull timeEstadio de la CeramicaFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

Elche

LLDLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricVillarrealElche
Shots16 shots/match▲13 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Possession37%63%
Corners4 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match16 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Elche's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Villarreal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Elche have a visible away split

strong

Elche's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.15 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.15 shots/match11.1 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Villarreal's recent record differs from the season

weak

Villarreal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.85 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.85 goals/match1.23 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Elche have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.6%▲PossessionVillarreal · Elche59%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVillarrealElcheBaseline
Possession43.6%59%49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Villarreal
0Draws
0Elche
Elche — Villarreal · La Liga1–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Villarreal favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Elche in 1 · 6 too close

1.85 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 27/271.3 goals/match
1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 27/271.52 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 27/2711.1 shots/match
12.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 27/2714.5 shots/match
4.48 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 27/274.04 shots/match
3.74 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 27/274.89 shots/match
43.6%Possessionseason · 27/2759%
4 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/273.7 corners/match
4.44 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/274.44 corners/match
2.44 cards/matchCardsseason · 27/27▲2.11 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2712.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
30%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2722%
85%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/2785%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Villarreal17.5
Elche87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Villarreal70
Elche42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Villarreal63.3
Elche23.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Villarreal72.5
Elche2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Villarreal55
Elche42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Villarreal22.5
Elche17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Villarreal48.1
Elche36.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShots5/512 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.4 shots/match
40.6%Possession5/563.6%
3.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10 shots/matchShots10/1010.5 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.1 shots/match
43.1%Possession10/1060.5%
3.4 corners/matchCorners10/104.8 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards10/102.6 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

27 / 27 matches
1.85 goals/match▲Goals scored27/271.3 goals/match
1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowed27/271.52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/match▲Shots27/2711.1 shots/match
4.48 shots/match▲Shots on target27/274.04 shots/match
43.6%Possession27/2759%
4 corners/matchCorners27/273.7 corners/match
2.44 cards/matchCards27/272.11 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls27/2712.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 13 matches
2.21 goals/match▲Goals scored14/131 goals/match
0.86 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/132 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots14/138.15 shots/match
5.5 shots/match▲Shots on target14/133 shots/match
47.9%Possession14/1357.5%
5.21 corners/matchCorners14/133.08 corners/match
1.64 cards/matchCards14/132.31 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls14/1312.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.91 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Mar 2026, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsVillarrealElche
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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