PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sun, 8 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeEstadio de MestallaFull-time recap
3–2Full-time recap

Alaves

WLDDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricValenciaAlaves
Shots20 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession61%39%
Corners10 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match17 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲6 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Valencia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Valencia's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Valencia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Valencia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.11 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.11 goals/match1.23 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Valencia have a visible home split

moderate

Valencia's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.9 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.9 shots/match11.4 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.19 corners/match▲CornersValencia · Alaves4.96 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricValenciaAlavesBaseline
Corners5.19 corners/match4.96 corners/match4.48 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Valencia
1Draws
0Alaves
Alaves — Valencia · La Liga0–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Valencia favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Alaves in 2 · 7 too close

1.11 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 27/270.93 goals/match
1.52 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 27/27▲1.37 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/2711.9 shots/match
11.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 27/2712.9 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 27/27▲3.96 shots/match
4.15 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/274.07 shots/match
49.2%Possessionseason · 27/2750.6%
5.19 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/274.96 corners/match
4.78 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/274.93 corners/match
2.15 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 27/272.63 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2715.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
26%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2711%
78%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 27/2763%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Valencia42.5
Alaves67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Valencia30
Alaves34.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Valencia45.8
Alaves49.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Valencia32.5
Alaves37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Valencia37.5
Alaves88.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Valencia67.5
Alaves60
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Valencia40
Alaves61.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.8 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.6 shots/match
51.8%Possession5/553.8%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/53.8 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls5/516.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.9 shots/match
3.3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.1 shots/match
49.7%Possession10/1052.3%
4.8 corners/matchCorners10/105 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/102.8 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

27 / 27 matches
1.11 goals/match▲Goals scored27/270.93 goals/match
1.52 goals/matchGoals allowed27/27▲1.37 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShots27/2711.9 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target27/27▲3.96 shots/match
49.2%Possession27/2750.6%
5.19 corners/matchCorners27/274.96 corners/match
2.15 cards/matchCards27/272.63 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls27/2715.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches
1.36 goals/match▲Goals scored14/140.64 goals/match
1.07 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.57 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.9 shots/match▲Shots14/1410.9 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target14/143.57 shots/match
51.8%Possession14/1450.1%
6.5 corners/matchCorners14/144.14 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards14/143.07 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls14/1415 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/19 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 9 Mar 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsValenciaAlaves
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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