PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sat, 21 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeMetropolitano StadiumFull-time recap
4–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAtletico MadridEspanyol
Shots18 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target9 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession61%39%
Corners5 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Espanyol's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Atletico Madrid's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Espanyol's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Espanyol's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.24 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.24 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atletico Madrid have a visible home split

moderate

Atletico Madrid's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.7 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.7 shots/match13.2 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Atletico Madrid have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.9%▲PossessionAtletico Madrid · Espanyol42.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAtletico MadridEspanyolBaseline
Possession54.9%42.4%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Atletico Madrid
0Draws
1Espanyol
Espanyol — Atletico Madrid · La Liga2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Atletico Madrid favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Espanyol in 0 · 5 too close

1.68 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 25/251.24 goals/match
0.92 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 25/251.48 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 25/2512.5 shots/match
10.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 25/2512.7 shots/match
5.56 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 25/254.16 shots/match
3 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 25/254.52 shots/match
54.9%Possessionseason · 25/2542.4%
6.88 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/254.4 corners/match
3.72 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 25/254.52 corners/match
1.88 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 25/252.08 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2512.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
40%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/2528%
84%Scoring frequencyseason · 25/2580%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atletico Madrid82.5
Espanyol7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atletico Madrid80.8
Espanyol57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atletico Madrid90
Espanyol41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atletico Madrid47.5
Espanyol82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atletico Madrid15
Espanyol40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atletico Madrid92.5
Espanyol42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atletico Madrid68.8
Espanyol53.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/53 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/match▲Shots5/510.4 shots/match
5.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match
60.2%Possession5/547.2%
7.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match
0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.5 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.7 shots/match
56.1%Possession10/1044.5%
6.4 corners/matchCorners10/104.5 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

25 / 25 matches
1.68 goals/match▲Goals scored25/251.24 goals/match
0.92 goals/match▲Goals allowed25/251.48 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shots25/2512.5 shots/match
5.56 shots/match▲Shots on target25/254.16 shots/match
54.9%Possession25/2542.4%
6.88 corners/matchCorners25/254.4 corners/match
1.88 cards/matchCards25/252.08 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls25/2512.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 12 matches
2.31 goals/match▲Goals scored13/121.25 goals/match
0.77 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/121.58 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.7 shots/match▲Shots13/1213 shots/match
7 shots/match▲Shots on target13/123.75 shots/match
56.6%Possession13/1241.8%
8.23 corners/matchCorners13/124.33 corners/match
1.77 cards/matchCards13/121.75 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls13/1212.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.29 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Feb 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAtletico MadridEspanyol
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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