PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sun, 15 Feb 2026, 15:15 UTCFull timeEstadio Municipal de ButarqueFull-time recap
3–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRayo VallecanoAtletico Madrid
Shots13 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target9 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession41%59%
Corners4 corners/match8 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Rayo Vallecano's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.91 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match0.91 goals/match1.21 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

strong

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.78 corners/match▲CornersRayo Vallecano · Atletico Madrid6.96 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricRayo VallecanoAtletico MadridBaseline
Corners5.78 corners/match6.96 corners/match4.62 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Atletico Madrid have a visible away split

moderate

Atletico Madrid's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.6 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.6 shots/match13 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Rayo Vallecano
0Draws
1Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga3–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Rayo Vallecano favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Atletico Madrid in 9 · 5 too close

0.91 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 23/24▲1.58 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 23/24▲0.88 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 23/2413 shots/match
12 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 23/24▲10.4 shots/match
4.61 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 23/24▲5.42 shots/match
4.22 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 23/24▲3.04 shots/match
54%Possessionseason · 23/2454.6%
5.78 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/246.96 corners/match
5.22 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 23/24▲3.75 corners/match
3.09 cards/matchCardsseason · 23/24▲1.96 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2411.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
30%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/24▲42%
57%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/24▲83%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rayo Vallecano77.5
Atletico Madrid82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rayo Vallecano55.8
Atletico Madrid79.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rayo Vallecano55.8
Atletico Madrid89.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rayo Vallecano57.5
Atletico Madrid42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano82.5
Atletico Madrid23.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano77.5
Atletico Madrid92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rayo Vallecano75
Atletico Madrid70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.8 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target5/55.2 shots/match
51%Possession5/558.8%
5 corners/matchCorners5/57.6 corners/match
3.8 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.1 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.2 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.7 shots/match
5.3 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.5 shots/match
54.8%Possession10/1054.2%
5.3 corners/matchCorners10/106.3 corners/match
3.9 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 24 matches
0.91 goals/matchGoals scored23/24▲1.58 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed23/24▲0.88 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.3 shots/matchShots23/2413 shots/match
4.61 shots/matchShots on target23/24▲5.42 shots/match
54%Possession23/2454.6%
5.78 corners/matchCorners23/246.96 corners/match
3.09 cards/matchCards23/241.96 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls23/2411.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 12 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored11/121 goals/match
0.82 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/121.08 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.1 shots/match▲Shots11/1210.6 shots/match
5.45 shots/match▲Shots on target11/124 shots/match
54.7%Possession11/1253%
6.64 corners/matchCorners11/125.42 corners/match
2.36 cards/matchCards11/122 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls11/1212.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.91 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples23 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Feb 2026, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRayo VallecanoAtletico Madrid
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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