PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Estadio de Mestalla

Valencia 0–2 Real Madrid · La Liga

0–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Real Madrid won 0–2.

Shots
711
Shots on target
06
Expected goals
0.441.03
Possession
40%60%

Full time

What the match recorded

Real Madrid beat Valencia 2–0. Recorded in this match (Valencia – Real Madrid): shots 7–11, shots on target 0–6, expected goals 0.44–1.03, possession 40%–60%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.3 shots/match ▲ShotsValencia · Real Madrid18.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricValenciaReal MadridBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match18.9 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against12.2 shots/match10 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Real Madrid's recent record differs from the season

weak

Real Madrid's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.13 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match2.13 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Valencia have a visible home split

moderate

Valencia's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.4 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.4 shots/match11.3 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots11 shotsValencia 7 shots, Real Madrid 11 shots
  • Shots on target0 shots6 shotsValencia 0 shots, Real Madrid 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.44 xG1.03 xGValencia 0.44 xG, Real Madrid 1.03 xG
  • Possession40%60%Valencia 40%, Real Madrid 60%
  • Corners5 corners8 cornersValencia 5 corners, Real Madrid 8 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls13 foulsValencia 10 fouls, Real Madrid 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 cardValencia 1 card, Real Madrid 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Eduardo Camavinga · Real Madrid · 38′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFederico Valverde · Real Madrid · 11′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedUnai Núñez · Valencia · 13′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLuis Rioja · Valencia · 57′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFederico Valverde · Real Madrid · 62′ · 0.02 xG · on targetArda Güler · Real Madrid · 18′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 19′ · 0.03 xG · on targetPepelu · Valencia · 35′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFranco Mastantuono · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGuido Rodríguez · Valencia · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLucas Beltrán · Valencia · 48′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 83′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedArnaut Danjuma · Valencia · 34′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 24′ · 0.10 xG · on targetDavid Jiménez · Real Madrid · 28′ · 0.10 xG · on targetLucas Beltrán · Valencia · 71′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro Carreras · Real Madrid · 65′ · 0.24 xG · goalKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.40 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Valencia: 7 shots, 0 on target, 0.45 xG. Real Madrid: 11 shots, 6 on target, 1.03 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Álvaro Carreras · Real Madrid · 65′Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Valencia 0.45 xG · Real Madrid 1.03 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Valencia
1Draws
3Real Madrid
Real Madrid — Valencia · La Liga4–0
Real Madrid — Valencia · La Liga1–2
Valencia — Real Madrid · La Liga1–2
Valencia — Real Madrid · La Liga2–2
Real Madrid — Valencia · La Liga5–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Valencia favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Real Madrid in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Valencia23 matchesReal Madrid23 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored23/23▲ 2.13 goals/match
1.61 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲ 0.78 goals/match
1.24 xG/matchExpected goals23/23▲ 2.28 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShots23/23▲ 18.9 shots/match
2.91 shots/matchShots on target23/23▲ 7.13 shots/match
48.3%Possession23/23● 59.3%
5.17 corners/matchCorners23/23● 6.52 corners/match
2.09 cards/matchCards23/231.96 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls23/2310 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 9 Feb 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in La Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsValenciaReal Madrid
CompetitionLa LigaLa Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headValencia — Real Madrid
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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