PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sun, 8 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeEstadio de MestallaFull-time recap
0–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricValenciaReal Madrid
Shots7 shots/match11 shots/match▲
Shots on target0 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Possession40%60%
Corners5 corners/match8 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Real Madrid's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.3 shots/match▲ShotsValencia · Real Madrid18.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricValenciaReal MadridBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match18.9 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against12.2 shots/match10 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Real Madrid's recent record differs from the season

weak

Real Madrid's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.13 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match2.13 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Valencia have a visible home split

moderate

Valencia's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.4 shots/match11.3 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Valencia
0Draws
1Real Madrid
Real Madrid — Valencia · La Liga4–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Valencia favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Real Madrid in 10 · 4 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 23/23▲2.13 goals/match
1.61 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 23/23▲0.78 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 23/23▲18.9 shots/match
12.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 23/23▲10 shots/match
2.91 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 23/23▲7.13 shots/match
4.43 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 23/23▲3.04 shots/match
48.2%Possessionseason · 23/2359.3%
5.17 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/236.52 corners/match
5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 23/23▲3.61 corners/match
2.09 cards/matchCardsseason · 23/23▲1.96 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2310 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
22%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/23▲48%
74%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/23▲91%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Valencia37.5
Real Madrid92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Valencia25.8
Real Madrid92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Valencia37.5
Real Madrid91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Valencia32.5
Real Madrid97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Valencia32.5
Real Madrid12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Valencia62.5
Real Madrid87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Valencia37.5
Real Madrid70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.6 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11 shots/matchShots5/5▲17.2 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲7.2 shots/match
43.6%Possession5/561.2%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/57.2 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.1 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲17.8 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.9 shots/match
49.5%Possession10/1058.7%
5.3 corners/matchCorners10/106.9 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1010 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 23 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored23/23▲2.13 goals/match
1.61 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲0.78 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShots23/23▲18.9 shots/match
2.91 shots/matchShots on target23/23▲7.13 shots/match
48.2%Possession23/2359.3%
5.17 corners/matchCorners23/236.52 corners/match
2.09 cards/matchCards23/231.96 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls23/2310 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲2 goals/match
1.08 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲0.92 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/matchShots12/12▲17.7 shots/match
3.33 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲6.5 shots/match
51.3%Possession12/1258%
6.33 corners/matchCorners12/126.25 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards12/121.25 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls12/129.67 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.29 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 9 Feb 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsValenciaReal Madrid
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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