PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Estadio de la Ceramica

Villarreal 0–2 Real Madrid · La Liga

0–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Real Madrid won 0–2.

Shots
814
Shots on target
14
Expected goals
0.581.58
Possession
42%58%

Full time

What the match recorded

Real Madrid beat Villarreal 2–0. Recorded in this match (Villarreal – Real Madrid): shots 8–14, shots on target 1–4, expected goals 0.58–1.58, possession 42%–58%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.7 shots/match ▲ShotsVillarreal · Real Madrid19.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVillarrealReal MadridBaseline
Shots12.7 shots/match19.4 shots/match11.5 shots/match
Shots against13.1 shots/match10.1 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Villarreal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Villarreal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.85 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.85 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Villarreal have a visible home split

moderate

Villarreal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.9 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.9 shots/match12.7 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots14 shotsVillarreal 8 shots, Real Madrid 14 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot4 shotsVillarreal 1 shot, Real Madrid 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.58 xG1.58 xGVillarreal 0.58 xG, Real Madrid 1.58 xG
  • Possession42%58%Villarreal 42%, Real Madrid 58%
  • Corners6 corners6 cornersVillarreal 6 corners, Real Madrid 6 corners
  • Fouls19 fouls10 foulsVillarreal 19 fouls, Real Madrid 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards1 cardVillarreal 3 cards, Real Madrid 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Alberto Moleiro · Villarreal · 71′ · 0.02 xG · on targetFederico Valverde · Real Madrid · 3′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedArda Güler · Real Madrid · 20′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 27′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAlberto Moleiro · Villarreal · 30′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 40′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGeorges Mikautadze · Villarreal · 43′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 54′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 69′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 83′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 40′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPape Gueye · Villarreal · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGeorges Mikautadze · Villarreal · 18′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDean Huijsen · Real Madrid · 52′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDean Huijsen · Real Madrid · 39′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedArda Güler · Real Madrid · 25′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 47′ · 0.11 xG · goalGerard Moreno · Villarreal · 56′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 82′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedGerard Moreno · Villarreal · 62′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Villarreal: 8 shots, 1 on target, 0.57 xG. Real Madrid: 14 shots, 4 on target, 1.61 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 47′Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Villarreal 0.57 xG · Real Madrid 1.61 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Villarreal
1Draws
4Real Madrid
Real Madrid — Villarreal · La Liga3–1
Villarreal — Real Madrid · La Liga1–2
Real Madrid — Villarreal · La Liga2–0
Villarreal — Real Madrid · La Liga4–4
Real Madrid — Villarreal · La Liga4–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Villarreal favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Real Madrid in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Villarreal20 matchesReal Madrid21 matches
1.85 goals/matchGoals scored20/21▲ 2.14 goals/match
1.05 goals/matchGoals allowed20/21▲ 0.81 goals/match
1.59 xG/matchExpected goals20/21▲ 2.35 xG/match
12.7 shots/matchShots20/21▲ 19.4 shots/match
4.65 shots/matchShots on target20/21▲ 7.24 shots/match
43.6%Possession20/21● 59.3%
4.2 corners/matchCorners20/21● 6.33 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards20/212 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls20/2110 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples20 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 25 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in La Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVillarrealReal Madrid
CompetitionLa LigaLa Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headVillarreal — Real Madrid
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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