PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sat, 24 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeEstadio de la CeramicaFull-time recap
0–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricVillarrealReal Madrid
Shots8 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target1 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Possession42%58%
Corners6 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls19 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Villarreal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.7 shots/match▲ShotsVillarreal · Real Madrid19.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVillarrealReal MadridBaseline
Shots12.7 shots/match19.4 shots/match11.5 shots/match
Shots against13.1 shots/match10.1 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Villarreal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Villarreal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.85 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.85 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Villarreal have a visible home split

moderate

Villarreal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.9 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.9 shots/match12.7 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Villarreal
0Draws
1Real Madrid
Real Madrid — Villarreal · La Liga3–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Villarreal favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Real Madrid in 10 · 4 too close

1.85 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 20/21▲2.14 goals/match
1.05 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 20/21▲0.81 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 20/21▲19.4 shots/match
13.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 20/21▲10.1 shots/match
4.65 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 20/21▲7.24 shots/match
3.55 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 20/21▲3.14 shots/match
43.6%Possessionseason · 20/2159.3%
4.2 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/216.33 corners/match
4.35 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 20/21▲3.52 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCardsseason · 20/21▲2 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2110 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
35%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/21▲48%
80%Scoring frequencyseason · 20/21▲90%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Villarreal17.5
Real Madrid92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Villarreal72.5
Real Madrid92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Villarreal65.8
Real Madrid92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Villarreal82.5
Real Madrid97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Villarreal58.8
Real Madrid10
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Villarreal37.5
Real Madrid82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Villarreal55
Real Madrid68.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.6 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲18 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲7.6 shots/match
33.8%Possession5/558%
3.4 corners/matchCorners5/56.4 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/101.9 goals/match
1.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲19.2 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.9 shots/match
42%Possession10/1057.5%
3.2 corners/matchCorners10/106.8 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls10/109.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

20 / 21 matches
1.85 goals/matchGoals scored20/21▲2.14 goals/match
1.05 goals/matchGoals allowed20/21▲0.81 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShots20/21▲19.4 shots/match
4.65 shots/matchShots on target20/21▲7.24 shots/match
43.6%Possession20/2159.3%
4.2 corners/matchCorners20/216.33 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards20/212 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls20/2110 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
2.09 goals/matchGoals scored11/112 goals/match
0.82 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.9 shots/matchShots11/11▲18.3 shots/match
5.64 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲6.55 shots/match
49.3%Possession11/1157.8%
5.36 corners/matchCorners11/116.09 corners/match
1.55 cards/matchCards11/111.27 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls11/119.36 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.29 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples20 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 25 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsVillarrealReal Madrid
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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