La Liga · 2025Sat, 24 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTCFull timeEstadio Ramón Sánchez PizjuánFull-time recap

Sevilla

WLLLD

2–1Full-time recap

Athletic Club

WLLDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Sevilla	Athletic Club
Shots	10 shots/match	15 shots/match▲
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Possession	50%	50%
Corners	5 corners/match	5 corners/match
Fouls	16 fouls/match	12 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Sevilla's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Sevilla's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Sevilla's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.33 goals/match	1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Sevilla

0Draws

1Athletic Club

17 Aug 2025Athletic Club — Sevilla · La Liga3–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Sevilla favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Athletic Club in 8 · 4 too close

1.33 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 21/210.95 goals/match

1.57 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/21▲1.43 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

11.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/21▲13.8 shots/match

10.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 21/21▲9.95 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/21▲4.43 shots/match

4.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/21▲4.29 shots/match

54.2%Possessionseason · 21/2149.4%

5.24 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/215.67 corners/match

4.95 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/21▲4.19 corners/match

3.1 cards/matchCardsseason · 21/21▲2.38 cards/match

15.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2113.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/21▲24%

76%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2162%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Sevilla77.5

Athletic Club52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Sevilla52.5

Athletic Club55

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Sevilla38.3

Athletic Club59.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Sevilla22.5

Athletic Club72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Sevilla95

Athletic Club62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Sevilla67.5

Athletic Club72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Sevilla63.8

Athletic Club71.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1 goals/match

1.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

14.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.6 shots/match

5.8 shots/matchShots on target5/55.8 shots/match

54%Possession5/553.2%

5.6 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match

3 cards/matchCards5/53.6 cards/match

15.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match

1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

12.9 shots/matchShots10/10▲15.4 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target10/104.9 shots/match

55.7%Possession10/1047.2%

5.9 corners/matchCorners10/105.9 corners/match

3 cards/matchCards10/102.9 cards/match

15 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches

1.33 goals/match▲Goals scored21/210.95 goals/match

1.57 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲1.43 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.6 shots/matchShots21/21▲13.8 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target21/21▲4.43 shots/match

54.2%Possession21/2149.4%

5.24 corners/matchCorners21/215.67 corners/match

3.1 cards/matchCards21/212.38 cards/match

15.2 fouls/matchFouls21/2113.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches

1.45 goals/match▲Goals scored11/110.91 goals/match

1.55 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.73 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.4 shots/matchShots11/11▲13.6 shots/match

4.27 shots/matchShots on target11/114.36 shots/match

57%Possession11/1147.3%

5.27 corners/matchCorners11/115.36 corners/match

3 cards/matchCards11/112.82 cards/match

16.2 fouls/matchFouls11/1113 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.09 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples21 / 21home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Jan 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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