UEFA Champions League · 2025Wed, 21 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeGewiss StadiumFull-time recap

Atalanta

WDWWW

2–3Full-time recap

Athletic Club

LWLDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Atalanta	Athletic Club
Shots	14 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.99 xG/match▲	1.74 xG/match
Possession	70%	30%
Corners	5 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	16 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Atalanta: 14 shots, 4 on target, 1.99 xG. Athletic Club: 4 shots, 3 on target, 1.72 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Atalanta 1.99 xG · Athletic Club 1.72 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Athletic Club's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Athletic Club's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Athletic Club have a visible away split

weak

Athletic Club's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season10.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	8.5 shots/match	10.7 shots/match	13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Athletic Club's recent record differs from the season

weak

Athletic Club's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	1 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Athletic Club show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Athletic Club's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

15.1 shots/match▲ShotsAtalanta · Athletic Club10.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Atalanta	Athletic Club	Baseline
Shots	15.1 shots/match	10.7 shots/match	13.6 shots/match
Shots against	11.9 shots/match	11.6 shots/match	13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Atalanta favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Athletic Club in 2 · 5 too close

1.43 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 7/71 goals/match

1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 7/71.57 goals/match

1.99 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 7/71.26 xG/match

1.43 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 7/7▲1.26 xG/match

15.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 7/710.7 shots/match

11.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 7/711.6 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 7/73.29 shots/match

4.86 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/74.86 shots/match

51%Possessionseason · 7/741.9%

4.29 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/73.71 corners/match

4 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 7/7▲3.43 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

9.29 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/717 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

43%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/729%

71%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 7/743%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atalanta58.3

Athletic Club10.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atalanta45.4

Athletic Club16.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atalanta58.8

Athletic Club51.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atalanta67.9

Athletic Club41.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atalanta15.5

Athletic Club95.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atalanta32.1

Athletic Club19

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atalanta35.4

Athletic Club35.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51 goals/match

2.08 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.5 xG/match

15.8 shots/match▲Shots5/511.6 shots/match

4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match

55.2%Possession5/541.4%

4.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.2 fouls/matchFouls5/517.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches

1.43 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71 goals/match

1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.57 goals/match

1.99 xG/match▲Expected goals7/71.26 xG/match

15.1 shots/match▲Shots7/710.7 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.29 shots/match

51%Possession7/741.9%

4.29 corners/matchCorners7/73.71 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.29 fouls/matchFouls7/717 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches

1.43 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71 goals/match

1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.57 goals/match

1.99 xG/match▲Expected goals7/71.26 xG/match

15.1 shots/match▲Shots7/710.7 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.29 shots/match

51%Possession7/741.9%

4.29 corners/matchCorners7/73.71 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.29 fouls/matchFouls7/717 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41 goals/match

1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/42 goals/match

2.32 xG/match▲Expected goals4/41.11 xG/match

17.5 shots/match▲Shots4/48.5 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target4/43.75 shots/match

55.8%Possession4/441.8%

5 corners/matchCorners4/43 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

7.5 fouls/matchFouls4/416.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

43 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/142 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples7 / 7home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Thu, 22 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4