PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sat, 24 Jan 2026, 15:15 UTCFull timeEstadio de MestallaFull-time recap
3–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricValenciaEspanyol
Shots10 shots/match16 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Possession47%53%
Corners2 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲5 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Valencia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Valencia's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Valencia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Valencia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.05 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.05 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Valencia have a visible home split

moderate

Valencia's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14 shots/match11.4 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Valencia
1Draws
0Espanyol
Espanyol — Valencia · La Liga2–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Valencia favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Espanyol in 6 · 7 too close

1.05 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/21▲1.19 goals/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/21▲1.19 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/21▲13.2 shots/match
12.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 21/2112.6 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/21▲4.48 shots/match
4.48 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/21▲4.24 shots/match
48.7%Possessionseason · 21/2141.8%
5.19 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/214.43 corners/match
4.95 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/214.71 corners/match
2.05 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 21/212.24 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2113 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
24%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/21▲33%
76%Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2176%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Valencia42.5
Espanyol7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Valencia30
Espanyol57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Valencia38.3
Espanyol56.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Valencia37.5
Espanyol92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Valencia26.2
Espanyol51.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Valencia62.5
Espanyol42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Valencia39.4
Espanyol59.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.6 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.6 shots/match
52.4%Possession5/543.6%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.9 shots/match
3.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3.9 shots/match
51%Possession10/1042.5%
5.7 corners/matchCorners10/104.5 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/102.6 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches
1.05 goals/matchGoals scored21/21▲1.19 goals/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲1.19 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShots21/21▲13.2 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target21/21▲4.48 shots/match
48.7%Possession21/2141.8%
5.19 corners/matchCorners21/214.43 corners/match
2.05 cards/matchCards21/212.24 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls21/2113 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 10 matches
1.36 goals/match▲Goals scored11/101.2 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/101.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14 shots/matchShots11/1013.9 shots/match
3.64 shots/matchShots on target11/10▲4.1 shots/match
52.4%Possession11/1041.2%
6.45 corners/matchCorners11/104.1 corners/match
2.09 cards/matchCards11/101.7 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls11/1012.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.09 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.8 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Jan 2026, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsValenciaEspanyol
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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