PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sat, 24 Jan 2026, 13:00 UTCFull timeCampo de Futbol de VallecasFull-time recap
1–3Full-time recap

Osasuna

LWDLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRayo VallecanoOsasuna
Shots11 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession67%33%
Corners4 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Osasuna's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Osasuna's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Osasuna's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Osasuna's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.14 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.14 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Osasuna have a visible away split

moderate

Osasuna's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.27 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.27 shots/match11 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Rayo Vallecano have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.1%▲PossessionRayo Vallecano · Osasuna45.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricRayo VallecanoOsasunaBaseline
Possession55.1%45.1%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Rayo Vallecano
0Draws
1Osasuna
Osasuna — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga2–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Rayo Vallecano favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Osasuna in 4 · 5 too close

0.81 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/21▲1.14 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/21▲1.19 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 21/2111 shots/match
12 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 21/2112.9 shots/match
4.43 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 21/213.57 shots/match
4.19 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 21/214.9 shots/match
55.1%Possessionseason · 21/2145.1%
5.95 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/213.05 corners/match
4.9 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/214.67 corners/match
2.86 cards/matchCardsseason · 21/21▲2.62 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2113 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/2124%
52%Scoring frequencyseason · 21/21▲62%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rayo Vallecano82.5
Osasuna27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rayo Vallecano50.8
Osasuna34.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rayo Vallecano57.5
Osasuna40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rayo Vallecano52.5
Osasuna47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano85
Osasuna71.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano77.5
Osasuna2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rayo Vallecano72.5
Osasuna33.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14 shots/matchShots5/513.8 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.2 shots/match
57%Possession5/546.8%
5 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards5/53 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/514 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.5 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.3 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.3 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.8 shots/match
57.1%Possession10/1044.2%
5.6 corners/matchCorners10/103.8 corners/match
3.4 cards/matchCards10/103.1 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches
0.81 goals/matchGoals scored21/21▲1.14 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲1.19 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shots21/2111 shots/match
4.43 shots/match▲Shots on target21/213.57 shots/match
55.1%Possession21/2145.1%
5.95 corners/matchCorners21/213.05 corners/match
2.86 cards/matchCards21/212.62 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls21/2113 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 11 matches
0.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/110.55 goals/match
0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/111.27 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.3 shots/match▲Shots10/119.27 shots/match
5.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/112.36 shots/match
56.1%Possession10/1142.1%
6.9 corners/matchCorners10/112.82 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/112.82 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1112.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.81 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.81 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Jan 2026, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRayo VallecanoOsasuna
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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