PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Estadio Abanca Balaídos

Celta Vigo 3–0 Rayo Vallecano · La Liga

3–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Celta Vigo won 3–0.

Shots
1114
Shots on target
73
Expected goals
1.871.18
Possession
49%51%

Full time

What the match recorded

Celta Vigo beat Rayo Vallecano 3–0. Recorded in this match (Celta Vigo – Rayo Vallecano): shots 11–14, shots on target 7–3, expected goals 1.87–1.18, possession 49%–51%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Celta Vigo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Celta Vigo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.4 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.4 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots14 shotsCelta Vigo 11 shots, Rayo Vallecano 14 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots3 shotsCelta Vigo 7 shots, Rayo Vallecano 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.87 xG1.18 xGCelta Vigo 1.87 xG, Rayo Vallecano 1.18 xG
  • Possession49%51%Celta Vigo 49%, Rayo Vallecano 51%
  • Corners5 corners7 cornersCelta Vigo 5 corners, Rayo Vallecano 7 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls14 foulsCelta Vigo 7 fouls, Rayo Vallecano 14 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards3 cardsCelta Vigo 4 cards, Rayo Vallecano 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Óscar Mingueza · Celta Vigo · 10′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedÓscar Mingueza · Celta Vigo · 29′ · 0.01 xG · on targetPedro Díaz · Rayo Vallecano · 38′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 40′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedÓscar Mingueza · Celta Vigo · 67′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedÓscar Mingueza · Celta Vigo · 25′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBryan Zaragoza · Celta Vigo · 24′ · 0.03 xG · on targetPacha · Rayo Vallecano · 32′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 59′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJosep Chavarría · Rayo Vallecano · 89′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPedro Díaz · Rayo Vallecano · 1′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarcos Alonso · Celta Vigo · 85′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPacha · Rayo Vallecano · 47′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRandy Nteka · Rayo Vallecano · 62′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 48′ · 0.07 xG · on targetCarlos Martín · Rayo Vallecano · 37′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRandy Nteka · Rayo Vallecano · 88′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedSergio Carreira · Celta Vigo · 79′ · 0.12 xG · on targetNobel Mendy · Rayo Vallecano · 32′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 47′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedPablo Durán · Celta Vigo · 90′ · 0.15 xG · on targetJavier Rueda · Celta Vigo · 79′ · 0.21 xG · goalJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 15′ · 0.33 xG · on targetSergio Carreira · Celta Vigo · 40′ · 0.51 xG · goalBryan Zaragoza · Celta Vigo · 54′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Celta Vigo: 11 shots, 7 on target, 1.93 xG. Rayo Vallecano: 14 shots, 3 on target, 1.16 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Sergio Carreira · Celta Vigo · 40′Bryan Zaragoza · Celta Vigo · 54′Javier Rueda · Celta Vigo · 79′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Celta Vigo 1.93 xG · Rayo Vallecano 1.16 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Celta Vigo
3Draws
2Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano — Celta Vigo · La Liga1–1
Celta Vigo — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga1–2
Rayo Vallecano — Celta Vigo · La Liga2–1
Celta Vigo — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga0–0
Rayo Vallecano — Celta Vigo · La Liga0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Celta Vigo favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Rayo Vallecano in 2 · 6 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Celta Vigo20 matchesRayo Vallecano20 matches
1.4 goals/match ▲Goals scored20/200.8 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed20/201.25 goals/match
1.31 xG/matchExpected goals20/201.31 xG/match
10.4 shots/matchShots20/20▲ 13.6 shots/match
4.1 shots/matchShots on target20/20▲ 4.4 shots/match
49.4%Possession20/20● 54.5%
3.85 corners/matchCorners20/20● 6.05 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards20/202.9 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls20/2013.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in La Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCelta VigoRayo Vallecano
CompetitionLa LigaLa Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headCelta Vigo — Rayo Vallecano
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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