La Liga · 2025Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTCFull timeEstadio Abanca BalaídosFull-time recap

Celta Vigo

WWDWW

3–0Full-time recap

Rayo Vallecano

LDLDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Celta Vigo	Rayo Vallecano
Shots	11 shots/match	14 shots/match▲
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Possession	49%	51%
Corners	5 corners/match	7 corners/match
Fouls	7 fouls/match	14 fouls/match
Yellow cards	4 cards/match	3 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Celta Vigo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Celta Vigo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Celta Vigo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.4 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2 goals/match	1.4 goals/match	1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Celta Vigo

1Draws

0Rayo Vallecano

21 Sept 2025Rayo Vallecano — Celta Vigo · La Liga1–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Celta Vigo favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Rayo Vallecano in 2 · 8 too close

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 20/200.8 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 20/201.25 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

10.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 20/20▲13.6 shots/match

12.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 20/2011.9 shots/match

4.1 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 20/20▲4.45 shots/match

4.3 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 20/204.15 shots/match

49.4%Possessionseason · 20/2054.5%

3.85 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/206.05 corners/match

4.85 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 20/205 corners/match

2.1 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 20/202.9 cards/match

11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2013.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

30%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/2030%

85%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 20/2050%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Celta Vigo50

Rayo Vallecano77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Celta Vigo48.3

Rayo Vallecano51.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Celta Vigo60.8

Rayo Vallecano62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Celta Vigo17.5

Rayo Vallecano62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Celta Vigo32.5

Rayo Vallecano85

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Celta Vigo22.5

Rayo Vallecano77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Celta Vigo31.9

Rayo Vallecano73.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match

0.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

8.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.4 shots/match

4.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.4 shots/match

44.8%Possession5/555.4%

2.4 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match

2.4 cards/matchCards5/53.2 cards/match

10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.4 goals/match

0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

9.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.5 shots/match

4.6 shots/matchShots on target10/104.5 shots/match

47.8%Possession10/1055.7%

2.5 corners/matchCorners10/105.7 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards10/103.3 cards/match

11.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

20 / 20 matches

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored20/200.8 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed20/201.25 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

10.4 shots/matchShots20/20▲13.6 shots/match

4.1 shots/matchShots on target20/20▲4.45 shots/match

49.4%Possession20/2054.5%

3.85 corners/matchCorners20/206.05 corners/match

2.1 cards/matchCards20/202.9 cards/match

11.7 fouls/matchFouls20/2013.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches

1.45 goals/match▲Goals scored11/110.82 goals/match

1.18 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.73 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.1 shots/matchShots11/11▲11.8 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target11/113.82 shots/match

52.7%Possession11/1154.2%

4.64 corners/matchCorners11/115.09 corners/match

1.91 cards/matchCards11/113.18 cards/match

10.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1114.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.19 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples20 / 20home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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