PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 15:15 UTCFull timeMetropolitano StadiumFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

Alaves

WLLDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAtletico MadridAlaves
Shots23 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲0 shots/match
Possession54%46%
Corners6 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match5 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Alaves's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Atletico Madrid's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Alaves's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Alaves's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.8 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.8 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atletico Madrid have a visible home split

moderate

Atletico Madrid's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.9 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.9 shots/match13.4 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Atletico Madrid
1Draws
0Alaves
Alaves — Atletico Madrid · La Liga1–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Atletico Madrid favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Alaves in 0 · 4 too close

1.75 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 20/200.8 goals/match
0.85 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 20/201.25 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 20/2011.3 shots/match
10.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 20/2012.4 shots/match
5.5 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 20/203.4 shots/match
2.85 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 20/203.9 shots/match
53.6%Possessionseason · 20/2050.1%
6.75 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/205.1 corners/match
3.8 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 20/204.8 corners/match
1.9 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 20/202.5 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2014.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
40%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/2015%
95%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 20/2060%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atletico Madrid72.5
Alaves57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atletico Madrid79.2
Alaves26.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atletico Madrid90
Alaves60.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atletico Madrid57.5
Alaves27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atletico Madrid15
Alaves77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atletico Madrid92.5
Alaves57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atletico Madrid67.5
Alaves52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/match▲Shots5/511 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
52%Possession5/552.8%
5.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.7 goals/match
0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots10/1011 shots/match
5.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.3 shots/match
53.4%Possession10/1048.7%
7.5 corners/matchCorners10/103.8 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards10/102.7 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls10/1014 fouls/match

Window

Season

20 / 20 matches
1.75 goals/match▲Goals scored20/200.8 goals/match
0.85 goals/match▲Goals allowed20/201.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/match▲Shots20/2011.3 shots/match
5.5 shots/match▲Shots on target20/203.4 shots/match
53.6%Possession20/2050.1%
6.75 corners/matchCorners20/205.1 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards20/202.5 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls20/2014.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
2.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.4 goals/match
0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.9 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.3 shots/match
6.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.1 shots/match
54.9%Possession10/1048.8%
8.5 corners/matchCorners10/104.5 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/102.7 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAtletico MadridAlaves
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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