UEFA Champions League · 2025Wed, 28 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeEstádio da LuzFull-time recap

Benfica

LLWWL

4–2Full-time recap

Real Madrid

WLWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Benfica	Real Madrid
Shots	22 shots/match▲	16 shots/match
Shots on target	12 shots/match▲	6 shots/match
Expected goals	2.99 xG/match▲	1.5 xG/match
Possession	33%	67%
Corners	6 corners/match	5 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Benfica: 22 shots, 12 on target, 3.05 xG. Real Madrid: 16 shots, 6 on target, 1.48 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Benfica 3.05 xG · Real Madrid 1.48 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Benfica's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Real Madrid's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Benfica's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Benfica's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.25 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	1.25 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Real Madrid have a visible away split

weak

Real Madrid's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

14.8 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season19.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	14.8 shots/match	19.5 shots/match	13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.42 corners/match▲CornersBenfica · Real Madrid6.63 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Benfica	Real Madrid	Baseline
Corners	5.42 corners/match	6.63 corners/match	4.63 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Benfica favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Real Madrid in 6 · 3 too close

1.25 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 12/8▲2.63 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 12/81.5 goals/match

1.47 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 8/8▲2.37 xG/match

1.31 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 8/81.65 xG/match

14.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 12/8▲19.5 shots/match

10.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 12/816 shots/match

4.58 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 12/8▲7.25 shots/match

3.67 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 12/87 shots/match

47.8%Possessionseason · 12/858%

5.42 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/86.63 corners/match

4.83 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 12/8▲4.5 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/810.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/825%

58%Scoring frequencyseason · 12/8▲88%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Benfica31

Real Madrid89.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Benfica43.9

Real Madrid90.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Benfica80.4

Real Madrid29.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Benfica65.5

Real Madrid89.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Benfica46.4

Real Madrid36.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Benfica72.6

Real Madrid89.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Benfica53.8

Real Madrid76.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.6 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match

1.84 xG/matchExpected goals5/51.81 xG/match

16.6 shots/matchShots5/516 shots/match

6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.2 shots/match

43.6%Possession5/557.6%

5 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 8 matches

1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/8▲2.63 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/81.5 goals/match

1.47 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲2.37 xG/match

13.7 shots/matchShots10/8▲19.5 shots/match

4.4 shots/matchShots on target10/8▲7.25 shots/match

46.2%Possession10/858%

5.4 corners/matchCorners10/86.63 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls10/810.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 8 matches

1.25 goals/matchGoals scored12/8▲2.63 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/81.5 goals/match

1.47 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲2.37 xG/match

14.3 shots/matchShots12/8▲19.5 shots/match

4.58 shots/matchShots on target12/8▲7.25 shots/match

47.8%Possession12/858%

5.42 corners/matchCorners12/86.63 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFouls12/810.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 4 matches

1.83 goals/matchGoals scored6/4▲2.75 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/42 goals/match

2 xG/match▲Expected goals4/41.79 xG/match

17.7 shots/match▲Shots6/414.8 shots/match

5.67 shots/matchShots on target6/4▲6.75 shots/match

48.3%Possession6/463.5%

5.33 corners/matchCorners6/44.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10 fouls/matchFouls6/410.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples12 / 8home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Thu, 29 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Benfica's recent record differs from the season

Real Madrid have a visible away split

Both teams have elevated corners records

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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