PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Estadio Santiago Bernabéu

Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo Vallecano · La Liga

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Real Madrid won 2–1.

Shots
1611
Shots on target
64
Expected goals
2.140.96
Possession
57%43%

Full time

What the match recorded

Real Madrid beat Rayo Vallecano 2–1. Recorded in this match (Real Madrid – Rayo Vallecano): shots 16–11, shots on target 6–4, expected goals 2.14–0.96, possession 57%–43%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

19.3 shots/match ▲ShotsReal Madrid · Rayo Vallecano13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridRayo VallecanoBaseline
Shots19.3 shots/match13.3 shots/match11.6 shots/match
Shots against10.1 shots/match12.2 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.45 corners/match ●CornersReal Madrid · Rayo Vallecano5.86 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridRayo VallecanoBaseline
Corners6.45 corners/match5.86 corners/match4.72 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Rayo Vallecano's recent record differs from the season

weak

Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.82 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match0.82 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots11 shotsReal Madrid 16 shots, Rayo Vallecano 11 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots4 shotsReal Madrid 6 shots, Rayo Vallecano 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.14 xG0.96 xGReal Madrid 2.14 xG, Rayo Vallecano 0.96 xG
  • Possession57%43%Real Madrid 57%, Rayo Vallecano 43%
  • Corners9 corners4 cornersReal Madrid 9 corners, Rayo Vallecano 4 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls18 foulsReal Madrid 6 fouls, Rayo Vallecano 18 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards8 cardsReal Madrid 2 cards, Rayo Vallecano 8 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Óscar Valentín · Rayo Vallecano · 77′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDani Ceballos · Real Madrid · 82′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 15′ · 0.02 xG · goalFederico Valverde · Real Madrid · 24′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIlias Akhomach · Rayo Vallecano · 37′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGerard Gumbau · Rayo Vallecano · 47′ · 0.02 xG · on targetPathé Ismaël Ciss · Rayo Vallecano · 74′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIlias Akhomach · Rayo Vallecano · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBrahim Díaz · Real Madrid · 33′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJosep Chavarría · Rayo Vallecano · 38′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEduardo Camavinga · Real Madrid · 85′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 86′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 87′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetArda Güler · Real Madrid · 19′ · 0.06 xG · on targetRodrygo · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAurélien Tchouaméni · Real Madrid · 51′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 49′ · 0.09 xG · goalVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 19′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 35′ · 0.11 xG · on targetBrahim Díaz · Real Madrid · 86′ · 0.11 xG · on targetDean Huijsen · Real Madrid · 45′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedIlias Akhomach · Rayo Vallecano · 5′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedAndrei Rațiu · Rayo Vallecano · 64′ · 0.40 xG · on targetKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 68′ · 0.59 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Real Madrid: 16 shots, 6 on target, 2.21 xG. Rayo Vallecano: 11 shots, 4 on target, 0.97 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 15′Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 90′Jorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 49′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Madrid 2.21 xG · Rayo Vallecano 0.97 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Real Madrid
4Draws
0Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano — Real Madrid · La Liga0–0
Real Madrid — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga2–1
Rayo Vallecano — Real Madrid · La Liga3–3
Rayo Vallecano — Real Madrid · La Liga1–1
Real Madrid — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Real Madrid favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Rayo Vallecano in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Real Madrid22 matchesRayo Vallecano22 matches
2.14 goals/match ▲Goals scored22/220.82 goals/match
0.82 goals/match ▲Goals allowed22/221.36 goals/match
2.34 xG/match ▲Expected goals22/221.27 xG/match
19.3 shots/match ▲Shots22/2213.3 shots/match
7.18 shots/match ▲Shots on target22/224.36 shots/match
59.2% ●Possession22/2254.5%
6.45 corners/match ●Corners22/225.86 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards22/223.18 cards/match
9.86 fouls/matchFouls22/2213.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in La Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsReal MadridRayo Vallecano
CompetitionLa LigaLa Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headReal Madrid — Rayo Vallecano
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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