PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sun, 1 Feb 2026, 13:00 UTCFull timeEstadio Santiago BernabéuFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricReal MadridRayo Vallecano
Shots16 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession57%43%
Corners9 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls6 fouls/match18 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲8 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

19.3 shots/match▲ShotsReal Madrid · Rayo Vallecano13.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridRayo VallecanoBaseline
Shots19.3 shots/match13.4 shots/match11.6 shots/match
Shots against10.1 shots/match12.2 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.45 corners/match▲CornersReal Madrid · Rayo Vallecano5.86 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridRayo VallecanoBaseline
Corners6.45 corners/match5.86 corners/match4.72 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Rayo Vallecano's recent record differs from the season

weak

Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.82 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match0.82 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Real Madrid
1Draws
0Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano — Real Madrid · La Liga0–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Real Madrid favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Rayo Vallecano in 0 · 4 too close

2.14 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 22/220.82 goals/match
0.82 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 22/221.36 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
19.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 22/2213.4 shots/match
10.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 22/2212.2 shots/match
7.18 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 22/224.41 shots/match
3.18 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 22/224.27 shots/match
59.2%Possessionseason · 22/2254.5%
6.45 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/225.86 corners/match
3.55 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 22/225.09 corners/match
2 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 22/223.18 cards/match
9.86 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2213.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
45%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/2227%
91%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 22/2255%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Madrid92.5
Rayo Vallecano82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Madrid92.5
Rayo Vallecano49.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Madrid90.8
Rayo Vallecano60.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Madrid97.5
Rayo Vallecano47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid12.5
Rayo Vallecano87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid87.5
Rayo Vallecano77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Madrid70
Rayo Vallecano72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18.6 shots/match▲Shots5/512.6 shots/match
7.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
59.8%Possession5/554.8%
6.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/54.2 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/514.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.6 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18.7 shots/match▲Shots10/1014.1 shots/match
7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.8 shots/match
57.8%Possession10/1056.8%
6.9 corners/matchCorners10/105.5 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/104.1 cards/match
9.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

22 / 22 matches
2.14 goals/match▲Goals scored22/220.82 goals/match
0.82 goals/match▲Goals allowed22/221.36 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.3 shots/match▲Shots22/2213.4 shots/match
7.18 shots/match▲Shots on target22/224.41 shots/match
59.2%Possession22/2254.5%
6.45 corners/matchCorners22/225.86 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards22/223.18 cards/match
9.86 fouls/matchFouls22/2213.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 12 matches
2.27 goals/match▲Goals scored11/120.83 goals/match
0.64 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/121.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20.3 shots/match▲Shots11/1211.8 shots/match
7.82 shots/match▲Shots on target11/123.83 shots/match
60.6%Possession11/1253.3%
6.82 corners/matchCorners11/125 corners/match
2.73 cards/matchCards11/123.75 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls11/1214.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.71 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsReal MadridRayo Vallecano
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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