PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sun, 21 Dec 2025, 15:15 UTCFull timeEstadio de la CeramicaFull-time recap
0–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricVillarrealBarcelona
Shots14 shots/match19 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match5 shots/match
Possession21%79%
Corners5 corners/match10 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Barcelona's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Barcelona have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Barcelona show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Barcelona's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.3 shots/match▲ShotsVillarreal · Barcelona19.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVillarrealBarcelonaBaseline
Shots13.3 shots/match19.9 shots/match11.3 shots/match
Shots against12.6 shots/match9.28 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Barcelona have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.2%▲PossessionVillarreal · Barcelona68.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 23.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVillarrealBarcelonaBaseline
Possession45.2%68.3%49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Villarreal have a visible home split

moderate

Villarreal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.1 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.1 shots/match13.3 shots/match11.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Villarreal favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Barcelona in 6 · 5 too close

1.94 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/18▲2.83 goals/match
0.94 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/181.11 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/18▲19.9 shots/match
12.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/18▲9.28 shots/match
5.06 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/18▲7.56 shots/match
3.38 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/183.5 shots/match
45.2%Possessionseason · 16/1868.3%
4.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/187.11 corners/match
4.19 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 16/184.56 corners/match
2.56 cards/matchCardsseason · 16/18▲1.72 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/189.22 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
44%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/1833%
88%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/18▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Villarreal27.5
Barcelona97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Villarreal80.8
Barcelona97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Villarreal70.8
Barcelona85.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Villarreal82.5
Barcelona77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Villarreal62.5
Barcelona2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Villarreal42.5
Barcelona97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Villarreal61.2
Barcelona73.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲3 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲19.2 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.4 shots/match
45%Possession5/569.6%
3.4 corners/matchCorners5/58.2 corners/match
3.2 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls5/58.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.9 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.5 shots/matchShots10/10▲19.5 shots/match
4.7 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.8 shots/match
42.7%Possession10/1066.2%
3.6 corners/matchCorners10/107.2 corners/match
2.9 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls10/109.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 18 matches
1.94 goals/matchGoals scored16/18▲2.83 goals/match
0.94 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/181.11 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.3 shots/matchShots16/18▲19.9 shots/match
5.06 shots/matchShots on target16/18▲7.56 shots/match
45.2%Possession16/1868.3%
4.5 corners/matchCorners16/187.11 corners/match
2.56 cards/matchCards16/181.72 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls16/189.22 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
2.22 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲2.56 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.1 shots/matchShots9/9▲19.1 shots/match
6.33 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲7.44 shots/match
50.7%Possession9/968.9%
5.78 corners/matchCorners9/96.89 corners/match
1.56 cards/matchCards9/92.56 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls9/99.33 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

15.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.91 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 21 Dec 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsVillarrealBarcelona
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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