PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sun, 21 Dec 2025, 17:30 UTCFull timeEstadio Manuel Martínez ValeroFull-time recap

Elche

DDLWL
4–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricElcheRayo Vallecano
Shots18 shots/match18 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match8 shots/match▲
Possession46%54%
Corners4 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Elche's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Rayo Vallecano's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.76 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.76 goals/match1.15 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Elche have a visible home split

moderate

Elche's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.9 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.9 shots/match11.4 shots/match11.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Rayo Vallecano show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Rayo Vallecano's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.4 shots/match▲ShotsElche · Rayo Vallecano13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricElcheRayo VallecanoBaseline
Shots11.4 shots/match13.6 shots/match11.3 shots/match
Shots against13.1 shots/match12.1 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Elche favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Rayo Vallecano in 5 · 5 too close

1.35 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 17/170.76 goals/match
1.18 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 17/171.18 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 17/17▲13.6 shots/match
13.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 17/17▲12.1 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 17/17▲4.53 shots/match
4.59 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 17/17▲4.12 shots/match
58.1%Possessionseason · 17/1754.5%
3.06 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/176.18 corners/match
4.24 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 17/175.18 corners/match
1.82 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 17/172.88 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1713.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/17▲35%
82%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 17/1747%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Elche87.5
Rayo Vallecano82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Elche57.5
Rayo Vallecano51.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Elche35.8
Rayo Vallecano56.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Elche7.5
Rayo Vallecano57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Elche35
Rayo Vallecano82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Elche2.5
Rayo Vallecano77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Elche42.5
Rayo Vallecano73.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.2 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.6 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.6 shots/match
55.4%Possession5/558.8%
2.8 corners/matchCorners5/56.2 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/54 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls5/513.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.6 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.6 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.5 shots/match
58.1%Possession10/1054.2%
3 corners/matchCorners10/105.7 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/102.8 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

17 / 17 matches
1.35 goals/match▲Goals scored17/170.76 goals/match
1.18 goals/matchGoals allowed17/171.18 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShots17/17▲13.6 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲4.53 shots/match
58.1%Possession17/1754.5%
3.06 corners/matchCorners17/176.18 corners/match
1.82 cards/matchCards17/172.88 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls17/1713.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 10 matches
1.78 goals/match▲Goals scored9/100.9 goals/match
0.56 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.9 shots/match▲Shots9/1011.6 shots/match
5.11 shots/match▲Shots on target9/103.9 shots/match
60.3%Possession9/1054.5%
3.33 corners/matchCorners9/104.9 corners/match
1.78 cards/matchCards9/103.1 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls9/1014.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.09 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.9 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 21 Dec 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsElcheRayo Vallecano
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match