PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Elche 4–0 Rayo Vallecano · La Liga

Elche

DDLWL
4–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Elche won 4–0.

Shots
1818
Shots on target
68
Expected goals
2.40.92
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

Elche beat Rayo Vallecano 4–0. Recorded in this match (Elche – Rayo Vallecano): shots 18–18, shots on target 6–8, expected goals 2.4–0.92, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Rayo Vallecano's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.76 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.76 goals/match1.15 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Elche have a visible home split

moderate

Elche's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.9 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.9 shots/match11.4 shots/match11.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Rayo Vallecano show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Rayo Vallecano's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.4 shots/match ▲ShotsElche · Rayo Vallecano13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricElcheRayo VallecanoBaseline
Shots11.4 shots/match13.5 shots/match11.3 shots/match
Shots against13.1 shots/match12.1 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots18 shotsElche 18 shots, Rayo Vallecano 18 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots8 shotsElche 6 shots, Rayo Vallecano 8 shots
  • Expected goals2.4 xG0.92 xGElche 2.4 xG, Rayo Vallecano 0.92 xG
  • Possession47%53%Elche 47%, Rayo Vallecano 53%
  • Corners4 corners5 cornersElche 4 corners, Rayo Vallecano 5 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls11 foulsElche 15 fouls, Rayo Vallecano 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards3 cardsElche 2 cards, Rayo Vallecano 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Álvaro Rodriguez · Elche · 24′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGerard Gumbau · Rayo Vallecano · 87′ · 0.01 xG · on targetRafa Mir · Elche · 88′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 12′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJosep Chavarría · Rayo Vallecano · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 30′ · 0.02 xG · on targetUnai López · Rayo Vallecano · 37′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPedro Díaz · Rayo Vallecano · 66′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPedro Díaz · Rayo Vallecano · 85′ · 0.02 xG · on targetÓscar Valentín · Rayo Vallecano · 10′ · 0.03 xG · on targetUnai López · Rayo Vallecano · 11′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRafa Mir · Elche · 14′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 26′ · 0.03 xG · on targetÓscar Valentín · Rayo Vallecano · 27′ · 0.03 xG · on targetÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 54′ · 0.03 xG · on targetFran Pérez · Rayo Vallecano · 75′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRafa Mir · Elche · 23′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 79′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 84′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro Rodriguez · Elche · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRafa Mir · Elche · 61′ · 0.05 xG · on targetRafa Mir · Elche · 14′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRafa Mir · Elche · 17′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDavid Affengruber · Elche · 41′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSergio Camello · Rayo Vallecano · 78′ · 0.08 xG · on targetÁlvaro Rodriguez · Elche · 52′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro Rodriguez · Elche · 54′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro Rodriguez · Elche · 38′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedRafa Mir · Elche · 49′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMartim Neto · Elche · 90′ · 0.16 xG · goalÁlvaro Rodriguez · Elche · 38′ · 0.17 xG · on targetHector Fort · Elche · 6′ · 0.18 xG · goalIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 84′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedIván Balliu · Rayo Vallecano · 30′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro Rodriguez · Elche · 67′ · 0.32 xG · goalGermán Valera · Elche · 70′ · 0.72 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Elche: 18 shots, 6 on target, 2.42 xG. Rayo Vallecano: 18 shots, 8 on target, 0.91 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Hector Fort · Elche · 6′Álvaro Rodriguez · Elche · 67′Germán Valera · Elche · 70′Martim Neto · Elche · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Elche 2.42 xG · Rayo Vallecano 0.91 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Elche
0Draws
2Rayo Vallecano
Elche — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga4–0
Rayo Vallecano — Elche · La Liga2–1
Elche — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga2–1
Rayo Vallecano — Elche · La Liga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Elche favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Rayo Vallecano in 7 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Elche17 matchesRayo Vallecano17 matches
1.35 goals/match ▲Goals scored17/170.76 goals/match
1.18 goals/matchGoals allowed17/171.18 goals/match
1.17 xG/matchExpected goals17/17▲ 1.28 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShots17/17▲ 13.5 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲ 4.47 shots/match
58.2% ●Possession17/1754.4%
3.06 corners/matchCorners17/17● 6.18 corners/match
1.82 cards/matchCards17/172.88 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls17/1713.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 21 Dec 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in La Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsElcheRayo Vallecano
CompetitionLa LigaLa Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headElche — Rayo Vallecano
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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