PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sat, 13 Dec 2025, 13:00 UTCFull timeMetropolitano StadiumFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAtletico MadridValencia
Shots10 shots/match13 shots/match▲
Shots on target6 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession46%54%
Corners5 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Atletico Madrid's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Valencia's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Atletico Madrid's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atletico Madrid's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.76 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.76 goals/match1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Valencia have a visible away split

moderate

Valencia's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

7.75 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots7.75 shots/match10.8 shots/match11.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Atletico Madrid.

6.71 days▲Rest daysAtletico Madrid · Valencia5.91 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAtletico MadridValenciaBaseline
Rest days6.71 days5.91 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Atletico Madrid favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Valencia in 1 · 4 too close

1.76 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 17/160.94 goals/match
0.94 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 17/161.56 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 17/1610.8 shots/match
10.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 17/1612.8 shots/match
5.65 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 17/162.88 shots/match
2.76 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 17/164.75 shots/match
53.7%Possessionseason · 17/1647.5%
7 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/165 corners/match
3.59 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 17/164.81 corners/match
2.06 cards/matchCardsseason · 17/16▲1.94 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1612.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
35%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/1625%
94%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 17/1669%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atletico Madrid72.5
Valencia42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atletico Madrid79.2
Valencia26.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atletico Madrid87.5
Valencia23.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atletico Madrid52.5
Valencia27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atletico Madrid25
Valencia25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atletico Madrid97.5
Valencia57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atletico Madrid68.8
Valencia35.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲13 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.8 shots/match
51%Possession5/549.6%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.7 goals/match
0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShots10/1012.4 shots/match
5.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.1 shots/match
51.9%Possession10/1048.9%
7.1 corners/matchCorners10/104.8 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

17 / 16 matches
1.76 goals/match▲Goals scored17/160.94 goals/match
0.94 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/161.56 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.9 shots/match▲Shots17/1610.8 shots/match
5.65 shots/match▲Shots on target17/162.88 shots/match
53.7%Possession17/1647.5%
7 corners/matchCorners17/165 corners/match
2.06 cards/matchCards17/161.94 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls17/1612.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 8 matches
2.44 goals/match▲Goals scored9/80.63 goals/match
0.78 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/82.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.1 shots/match▲Shots9/87.75 shots/match
7 shots/match▲Shots on target9/82.13 shots/match
55%Possession9/842.6%
8.78 corners/matchCorners9/83.88 corners/match
1.89 cards/matchCards9/81.63 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls9/811.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.71 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.91 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples17 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Dec 2025, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAtletico MadridValencia
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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