PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeEstadio MendizorrotzaFull-time recap

Alaves

WLLLW
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAlavesReal Madrid
Shots6 shots/match13 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Possession52%48%
Corners5 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Alaves's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11 shots/match▲ShotsAlaves · Real Madrid19.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAlavesReal MadridBaseline
Shots11 shots/match19.5 shots/match11 shots/match
Shots against11.3 shots/match9.82 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Alaves's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Alaves's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.88 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.88 goals/match1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Real Madrid.

8.2 days▲Rest daysAlaves · Real Madrid7 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAlavesReal MadridBaseline
Rest days8.2 days7 days—
Matches last 14 days1 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Alaves favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Real Madrid in 10 · 4 too close

0.88 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/17▲2 goals/match
1.06 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/17▲0.94 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/17▲19.5 shots/match
11.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/17▲9.82 shots/match
3.31 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/17▲7.06 shots/match
3.44 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/17▲3.24 shots/match
49.3%Possessionseason · 16/1759.1%
5.25 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/176.35 corners/match
4.56 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/17▲3.24 corners/match
2.56 cards/matchCardsseason · 16/17▲2.12 cards/match
16.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/179.76 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/17▲41%
63%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/17▲88%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Alaves52.5
Real Madrid92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Alaves29.2
Real Madrid90.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Alaves74.2
Real Madrid90
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Alaves27.5
Real Madrid97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Alaves83.8
Real Madrid22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Alaves67.5
Real Madrid87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Alaves58.1
Real Madrid70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲18.8 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.4 shots/match
44.2%Possession5/555.8%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/57 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
17 fouls/matchFouls5/58.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
1.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲20.8 shots/match
3.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲7.5 shots/match
49.2%Possession10/1057.6%
5.4 corners/matchCorners10/107 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards10/102.3 cards/match
15.4 fouls/matchFouls10/109.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 17 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored16/17▲2 goals/match
1.06 goals/matchGoals allowed16/17▲0.94 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11 shots/matchShots16/17▲19.5 shots/match
3.31 shots/matchShots on target16/17▲7.06 shots/match
49.3%Possession16/1759.1%
5.25 corners/matchCorners16/176.35 corners/match
2.56 cards/matchCards16/172.12 cards/match
16.1 fouls/matchFouls16/179.76 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 10 matches
1.22 goals/matchGoals scored9/10▲2 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/101.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShots9/10▲18.7 shots/match
3.33 shots/matchShots on target9/10▲6.8 shots/match
50.7%Possession9/1057.8%
5.67 corners/matchCorners9/106.1 corners/match
2.11 cards/matchCards9/101.3 cards/match
15.3 fouls/matchFouls9/109.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 15 Dec 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAlavesReal Madrid
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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