PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeEstadio Santiago BernabéuFull-time recap
4–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricReal MadridValencia
Shots21 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Shots on target11 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession65%35%
Corners7 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Valencia's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Valencia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Valencia's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.91 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.91 goals/match1.1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

19.6 shots/match▲ShotsReal Madrid · Valencia9.82 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridValenciaBaseline
Shots19.6 shots/match9.82 shots/match11.5 shots/match
Shots against9.73 shots/match14.2 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Valencia have a visible away split

moderate

Valencia's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

6.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season9.82 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots6.5 shots/match9.82 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Real Madrid favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Valencia in 1 · 4 too close

2.36 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 11/110.91 goals/match
0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 11/111.82 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
19.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 11/119.82 shots/match
9.73 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 11/1114.2 shots/match
7.55 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 11/112.91 shots/match
2.91 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 11/115.45 shots/match
61%Possessionseason · 11/1146.5%
5.91 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/114.73 corners/match
3.18 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 11/115.27 corners/match
2.09 cards/matchCardsseason · 11/11▲1.64 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1112 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
45%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/1127%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 11/1155%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Madrid92.5
Valencia37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Madrid92.5
Valencia16.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Madrid87.5
Valencia15.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Madrid92.5
Valencia17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid26.2
Valencia23.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid72.5
Valencia47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Madrid68.8
Valencia30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.4 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.8 shots/match▲Shots5/511.8 shots/match
8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
61.2%Possession5/548.2%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls5/513.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.8 shots/match▲Shots10/109 shots/match
7.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103 shots/match
60%Possession10/1045.8%
5.8 corners/matchCorners10/104.4 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 11 matches
2.36 goals/match▲Goals scored11/110.91 goals/match
0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.82 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.6 shots/match▲Shots11/119.82 shots/match
7.55 shots/match▲Shots on target11/112.91 shots/match
61%Possession11/1146.5%
5.91 corners/matchCorners11/114.73 corners/match
2.09 cards/matchCards11/111.64 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1112 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches
2.33 goals/match▲Goals scored6/60.5 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/62.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20.2 shots/match▲Shots6/66.5 shots/match
7.5 shots/match▲Shots on target6/62.17 shots/match
61.3%Possession6/640.5%
6.5 corners/matchCorners6/63.17 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards6/61.83 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls6/611.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.04 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 2 Nov 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsReal MadridValencia
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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