PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sat, 25 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTCFull timeEstadio de MestallaFull-time recap
0–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricValenciaVillarreal
Shots15 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession57%43%
Corners7 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Valencia's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Villarreal's last-five shots average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Valencia have a visible home split

moderate

Valencia's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season10.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match10.4 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Villarreal's recent record differs from the season

weak

Villarreal's last-five shots average is below their season average.

10.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots10.8 shots/match14 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Villarreal show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Villarreal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.4 shots/match▲ShotsValencia · Villarreal14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricValenciaVillarrealBaseline
Shots10.4 shots/match14 shots/match11.4 shots/match
Shots against13.5 shots/match12.3 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Valencia favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Villarreal in 9 · 4 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 10/10▲1.8 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 10/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 10/10▲14 shots/match
13.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 10/10▲12.3 shots/match
3.1 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 10/10▲4.9 shots/match
4.9 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 10/10▲3.3 shots/match
47.7%Possessionseason · 10/1045.1%
5.1 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/105.2 corners/match
5.1 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 10/10▲3.6 corners/match
1.7 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 10/102.4 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1011.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
30%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/10▲40%
60%Scoring frequencyseason · 10/10▲90%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Valencia42.5
Villarreal32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Valencia25.8
Villarreal81.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Valencia25
Villarreal66.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Valencia32.5
Villarreal92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Valencia30
Villarreal50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Valencia47.5
Villarreal57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Valencia35.6
Villarreal63.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/match▲Shots5/510.8 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4 shots/match
50%Possession5/538%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.8 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/53 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls5/513.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.4 shots/matchShots10/10▲14 shots/match
3.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.9 shots/match
47.7%Possession10/1045.1%
5.1 corners/matchCorners10/105.2 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.4 shots/matchShots10/10▲14 shots/match
3.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.9 shots/match
47.7%Possession10/1045.1%
5.1 corners/matchCorners10/105.2 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots5/59.8 shots/match
3.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match
53.8%Possession5/536.4%
6.6 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/53.4 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls5/513 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.1 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Oct 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsValenciaVillarreal
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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