FC St. Pauli
1–3Full-time recap
VfL Wolfsburg
This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.
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What the record shows
The available record does not support a clear cross-team pattern. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.
Evidence quality
How much supports this analysis
Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
- Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.
Style profile
How the teams compare
Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.
Possession control
Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.
FC St. Pauli25
VfL Wolfsburg33.3
Attacking volume
Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.
FC St. Pauli2.8
VfL Wolfsburg32.4
Defensive resistance
Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.
FC St. Pauli42.6
VfL Wolfsburg8.3
Directness proxy
Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.
FC St. Pauli8.3
VfL Wolfsburg47.2
Physicality
Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.
FC St. Pauli22.2
VfL Wolfsburg63.9
Set-piece relevance
Corner volume relative to competition peers.
FC St. Pauli52.8
VfL Wolfsburg22.2
Tempo and pressure proxy
Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.
FC St. Pauli22.2
VfL Wolfsburg37.5
Recent form
Season, last 10 and last 5
Window
Last 5
| Metric | FC St. Pauli | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 0.8 goals/match5 obs. | 1.2 goals/match5 obs. |
| Goals allowed | 2 goals/match5 obs. | 0.8 goals/match5 obs. |
| Expected goals | 1.15 xG/match5 obs. | 1.76 xG/match5 obs. |
| Shots | 10.2 shots/match5 obs. | 13 shots/match5 obs. |
| Shots on target | 3 shots/match5 obs. | 5.4 shots/match5 obs. |
| Possession | 45.8%5 obs. | 43%5 obs. |
| Corners | 6.8 corners/match5 obs. | 6.8 corners/match5 obs. |
| Cards | —0 obs. | —0 obs. |
| Fouls | 7 fouls/match5 obs. | 10.8 fouls/match5 obs. |
Window
Last 10
| Metric | FC St. Pauli | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 0.6 goals/match10 obs. | 1.2 goals/match10 obs. |
| Goals allowed | 2 goals/match10 obs. | 1.6 goals/match10 obs. |
| Expected goals | 0.87 xG/match9 obs. | 1.5 xG/match9 obs. |
| Shots | 9.6 shots/match10 obs. | 12.4 shots/match10 obs. |
| Shots on target | 2.8 shots/match10 obs. | 4.6 shots/match10 obs. |
| Possession | 43.4%10 obs. | 43.7%10 obs. |
| Corners | 5 corners/match10 obs. | 6.1 corners/match10 obs. |
| Cards | —1 obs. | —2 obs. |
| Fouls | 8.1 fouls/match10 obs. | 11.7 fouls/match10 obs. |
Window
Season
| Metric | FC St. Pauli | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 0.85 goals/match34 obs. | 1.32 goals/match34 obs. |
| Goals allowed | 1.76 goals/match34 obs. | 2.03 goals/match34 obs. |
| Expected goals | 0.87 xG/match9 obs. | 1.5 xG/match9 obs. |
| Shots | 10.1 shots/match34 obs. | 11.8 shots/match34 obs. |
| Shots on target | 3.32 shots/match34 obs. | 4.12 shots/match34 obs. |
| Possession | 44.4%34 obs. | 45.3%34 obs. |
| Corners | 4.74 corners/match34 obs. | 4.41 corners/match34 obs. |
| Cards | 1.56 cards/match25 obs. | 2.12 cards/match26 obs. |
| Fouls | 9.56 fouls/match34 obs. | 11.5 fouls/match34 obs. |
Venue split
Home and away samples
Window
Home team at home / away team away
| Metric | FC St. Pauli | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1 goals/match17 obs. | 1.41 goals/match17 obs. |
| Goals allowed | 1.82 goals/match17 obs. | 2.18 goals/match17 obs. |
| Expected goals | 1.07 xG/match5 obs. | 1.36 xG/match5 obs. |
| Shots | 10.5 shots/match17 obs. | 10.1 shots/match17 obs. |
| Shots on target | 4.18 shots/match17 obs. | 3.71 shots/match17 obs. |
| Possession | 45%17 obs. | 42.3%17 obs. |
| Corners | 5.88 corners/match17 obs. | 3.47 corners/match17 obs. |
| Cards | 1.67 cards/match12 obs. | 1.92 cards/match12 obs. |
| Fouls | 9.53 fouls/match17 obs. | 10.9 fouls/match17 obs. |
Metric comparison
Values, percentiles and samples
| Metric | Home | Away | Competition | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scoredseason | 0.85 goals/match3th | 1.32 goals/match44th | 1.38 goals/match | 34 / 34 |
| Goals allowedseason | 1.76 goals/match67th | 2.03 goals/match92th | 1.63 goals/match | 34 / 34 |
| Expected goalsseason | 0.87 xG/match8th | 1.5 xG/match47th | 1.51 xG/match | 9 / 9 |
| Expected goals allowedseason | 1.98 xG/match92th | 1.51 xG/match42th | 1.52 xG/match | 9 / 9 |
| Shotsseason | 10.1 shots/match3th | 11.8 shots/match19th | 12.6 shots/match | 34 / 34 |
| Shots allowedseason | 12.4 shots/match25th | 15.2 shots/match92th | 13.3 shots/match | 34 / 34 |
| Shots on targetseason | 3.32 shots/match3th | 4.12 shots/match33th | 4.54 shots/match | 34 / 34 |
| Shots on target allowedseason | 5.35 shots/match81th | 5.53 shots/match92th | 4.84 shots/match | 34 / 34 |
| Possessionseason | 44.4%25th | 45.3%33th | 47.6% | 34 / 34 |
| Cornersseason | 4.74 corners/match53th | 4.41 corners/match22th | 4.71 corners/match | 34 / 34 |
| Corners allowedseason | 5.15 corners/match75th | 7.35 corners/match97th | 4.79 corners/match | 34 / 34 |
| Cardsseason | 1.56 cards/match14th | 2.12 cards/match53th | 2.06 cards/match | 25 / 26 |
| Foulsseason | 9.56 fouls/match31th | 11.5 fouls/match75th | 10.1 fouls/match | 34 / 34 |
| Clean-sheet frequencyseason | 15%28th | 6%8th | 19% | 34 / 34 |
| Scoring frequencyseason | 62%6th | 76%50th | 76% | 34 / 34 |
Schedule context
Rest and recent workload
| Metric | Home | Away | Competition | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures | 7 days— | 6.88 days— | — | 1 / 1 |
| Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures | 2 matches— | 2 matches— | — | 1 / 1 |
What could change this?
Known unknowns
- Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.