PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Millerntor-Stadion

FC St. Pauli 1–3 VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga

1–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

VfL Wolfsburg won 1–3.

Shots
1119
Shots on target
210
Expected goals
1.483.5
Possession
44%56%

Full time

What the match recorded

VfL Wolfsburg beat FC St. Pauli 3–1. Recorded in this match (FC St. Pauli – VfL Wolfsburg): shots 11–19, shots on target 2–10, expected goals 1.48–3.5, possession 44%–56%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots19 shotsFC St. Pauli 11 shots, VfL Wolfsburg 19 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots10 shotsFC St. Pauli 2 shots, VfL Wolfsburg 10 shots
  • Expected goals1.48 xG3.5 xGFC St. Pauli 1.48 xG, VfL Wolfsburg 3.5 xG
  • Possession44%56%FC St. Pauli 44%, VfL Wolfsburg 56%
  • Corners8 corners9 cornersFC St. Pauli 8 corners, VfL Wolfsburg 9 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls9 foulsFC St. Pauli 6 fouls, VfL Wolfsburg 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards3 cardsFC St. Pauli 2 cards, VfL Wolfsburg 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Joel Chima Fujita · FC St. Pauli · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDženan Pejčinović · VfL Wolfsburg · 54′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJoel Chima Fujita · FC St. Pauli · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedConnor Metcalfe · FC St. Pauli · 34′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDženan Pejčinović · VfL Wolfsburg · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDženan Pejčinović · VfL Wolfsburg · 63′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMartijn Kaars · FC St. Pauli · 30′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedChristian Eriksen · VfL Wolfsburg · 32′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAbdoulie Ceesay · FC St. Pauli · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTomoya Ando · FC St. Pauli · 31′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 46′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 7′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedConnor Metcalfe · FC St. Pauli · 69′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJoakim Mæhle · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAbdoulie Ceesay · FC St. Pauli · 72′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSaël Kumbedi · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Souza · VfL Wolfsburg · 33′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAdam Daghim · VfL Wolfsburg · 37′ · 0.16 xG · on targetVinícius Souza · VfL Wolfsburg · 23′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 28′ · 0.17 xG · on targetAdam Daghim · VfL Wolfsburg · 23′ · 0.18 xG · on targetYannick Gerhardt · VfL Wolfsburg · 73′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedAbdoulie Ceesay · FC St. Pauli · 57′ · 0.20 xG · goalKonstantinos Koulierakis · VfL Wolfsburg · 37′ · 0.21 xG · goalJackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli · 88′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedNikola Vasilj · VfL Wolfsburg · 64′ · 0.25 xG · goalAdam Daghim · VfL Wolfsburg · 23′ · 0.33 xG · on targetDženan Pejčinović · VfL Wolfsburg · 80′ · 0.39 xG · goalChristian Eriksen · VfL Wolfsburg · 80′ · 0.49 xG · on targetAndreas Hountondji · FC St. Pauli · 42′ · 0.74 xG · off target or blockedChristian Eriksen · VfL Wolfsburg · 77′ · 0.82 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC St. Pauli: 11 shots, 2 on target, 1.51 xG. VfL Wolfsburg: 20 shots, 11 on target, 3.88 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0240′HT90′Abdoulie Ceesay · FC St. Pauli · 57′Konstantinos Koulierakis · VfL Wolfsburg · 37′Nikola Vasilj · VfL Wolfsburg · 64′Dženan Pejčinović · VfL Wolfsburg · 80′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC St. Pauli 1.51 xG · VfL Wolfsburg 3.88 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0FC St. Pauli
2Draws
1VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg — FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga2–1
VfL Wolfsburg — FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga1–1
FC St. Pauli — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC St. Pauli favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · VfL Wolfsburg in 5 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC St. Pauli34 matchesVfL Wolfsburg34 matches
0.85 goals/matchGoals scored34/34▲ 1.32 goals/match
1.76 goals/match ▲Goals allowed34/342.03 goals/match
0.89 xG/matchExpected goals34/34▲ 1.39 xG/match
10.2 shots/matchShots34/34▲ 11.9 shots/match
3.35 shots/matchShots on target34/34▲ 4.21 shots/match
44.4%Possession34/34● 45.3%
4.74 corners/match ●Corners34/344.44 corners/match
1.58 cards/matchCards26/272.04 cards/match
9.59 fouls/matchFouls34/3411.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 16 May 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC St. PauliVfL Wolfsburg
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-headFC St. Pauli — VfL Wolfsburg
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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