PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025PreZero Arena

TSG Hoffenheim 1–2 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FSV Mainz 05 won 1–2.

Shots
169
Shots on target
55
Expected goals
1.232.16
Possession
61%39%

Full time

What the match recorded

FSV Mainz 05 beat 1899 Hoffenheim 2–1. Recorded in this match (1899 Hoffenheim – FSV Mainz 05): shots 16–9, shots on target 5–5, expected goals 1.23–2.16, possession 61%–39%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.25 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.25 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FSV Mainz 05 have a visible away split

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.29 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.29 shots/match11.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

1899 Hoffenheim have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.8% ●Possession1899 Hoffenheim · FSV Mainz 0543%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.9 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric1899 HoffenheimFSV Mainz 05Baseline
Possession54.8%43%47.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots9 shotsTSG Hoffenheim 16 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 9 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots5 shotsTSG Hoffenheim 5 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.23 xG2.16 xGTSG Hoffenheim 1.23 xG, 1. FSV Mainz 05 2.16 xG
  • Possession61%39%TSG Hoffenheim 61%, 1. FSV Mainz 05 39%
  • Corners7 corners3 cornersTSG Hoffenheim 7 corners, 1. FSV Mainz 05 3 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls5 foulsTSG Hoffenheim 11 fouls, 1. FSV Mainz 05 5 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards1 cardTSG Hoffenheim 4 cards, 1. FSV Mainz 05 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Grischa Prömel · 1899 Hoffenheim · 9′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAlbian Hajdari · 1899 Hoffenheim · 39′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFisnik Asllani · 1899 Hoffenheim · 4′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPaul Nebel · FSV Mainz 05 · 62′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTim Lemperle · 1899 Hoffenheim · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBazoumana Touré · 1899 Hoffenheim · 58′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlbian Hajdari · 1899 Hoffenheim · 70′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedWouter Burger · 1899 Hoffenheim · 81′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlbian Hajdari · 1899 Hoffenheim · 31′ · 0.04 xG · on targetBazoumana Touré · 1899 Hoffenheim · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Prass · 1899 Hoffenheim · 63′ · 0.04 xG · on targetVladimír Coufal · 1899 Hoffenheim · 28′ · 0.05 xG · on targetFisnik Asllani · 1899 Hoffenheim · 33′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPaul Nebel · FSV Mainz 05 · 79′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFisnik Asllani · 1899 Hoffenheim · 23′ · 0.07 xG · goalPhillip Tietz · FSV Mainz 05 · 67′ · 0.09 xG · on targetTim Lemperle · 1899 Hoffenheim · 11′ · 0.15 xG · on targetBazoumana Touré · 1899 Hoffenheim · 45′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedPhillip Tietz · FSV Mainz 05 · 13′ · 0.17 xG · goalPaul Nebel · FSV Mainz 05 · 43′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · FSV Mainz 05 · 25′ · 0.31 xG · on targetPhillip Tietz · FSV Mainz 05 · 79′ · 0.33 xG · on targetFisnik Asllani · 1899 Hoffenheim · 10′ · 0.46 xG · off target or blockedSheraldo Becker · FSV Mainz 05 · 13′ · 0.48 xG · off target or blockedPhillip Tietz · FSV Mainz 05 · 79′ · 0.77 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1899 Hoffenheim: 16 shots, 5 on target, 1.22 xG. FSV Mainz 05: 9 shots, 5 on target, 2.42 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Fisnik Asllani · 1899 Hoffenheim · 23′Phillip Tietz · FSV Mainz 05 · 13′Phillip Tietz · FSV Mainz 05 · 79′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.22 xG · FSV Mainz 05 2.42 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1TSG Hoffenheim
2Draws
21. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 05 — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga1–1
TSG Hoffenheim — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga2–0
1. FSV Mainz 05 — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga2–0
1. FSV Mainz 05 — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga4–1
TSG Hoffenheim — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: TSG Hoffenheim favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FSV Mainz 05 in 1 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

TSG Hoffenheim28 matches1. FSV Mainz 0528 matches
1.96 goals/match ▲Goals scored28/281.25 goals/match
1.46 goals/matchGoals allowed28/281.54 goals/match
1.62 xG/match ▲Expected goals28/281.48 xG/match
13.9 shots/match ▲Shots28/2811.3 shots/match
5.21 shots/match ▲Shots on target28/283.75 shots/match
54.8% ●Possession28/2843%
5.68 corners/match ●Corners28/284.96 corners/match
2.04 cards/matchCards25/252.52 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls28/2811.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsTSG Hoffenheim1. FSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-headTSG Hoffenheim — 1. FSV Mainz 05
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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