PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Millerntor-Stadion

FC St. Pauli 0–0 Hamburger SV · Bundesliga

0–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC St. Pauli and Hamburger SV drew 0–0.

Shots
85
Shots on target
32
Expected goals
0.260.35
Possession
43%57%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC St. Pauli and Hamburger SV drew 0–0. Recorded in this match (FC St. Pauli – Hamburger SV): shots 8–5, shots on target 3–2, expected goals 0.26–0.35, possession 43%–57%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Hamburger SV's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Hamburger SV's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.94 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.94 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots5 shotsFC St. Pauli 8 shots, Hamburger SV 5 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots2 shotsFC St. Pauli 3 shots, Hamburger SV 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.26 xG0.35 xGFC St. Pauli 0.26 xG, Hamburger SV 0.35 xG
  • Possession43%57%FC St. Pauli 43%, Hamburger SV 57%
  • Corners5 corners4 cornersFC St. Pauli 5 corners, Hamburger SV 4 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls13 foulsFC St. Pauli 15 fouls, Hamburger SV 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 cardFC St. Pauli 1 card, Hamburger SV 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Eric Smith · FC St. Pauli · 16′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMathias Pereira Lage · FC St. Pauli · 26′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFábio Vieira · Hamburger SV · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoel Chima Fujita · FC St. Pauli · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLuka Vušković · Hamburger SV · 49′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEric Smith · FC St. Pauli · 76′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDanel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 79′ · 0.03 xG · on targetArkadiusz Pyrka · FC St. Pauli · 81′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJames Sands · FC St. Pauli · 63′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLouis Oppie · FC St. Pauli · 79′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFabio Baldé · Hamburger SV · 45′ · 0.08 xG · on targetLuka Vušković · Hamburger SV · 54′ · 0.09 xG · on targetDamion Downs · Hamburger SV · 67′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC St. Pauli: 8 shots, 3 on target, 0.26 xG. Hamburger SV: 5 shots, 2 on target, 0.34 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.250.50′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC St. Pauli 0.26 xG · Hamburger SV 0.34 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2FC St. Pauli
1Draws
2Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV — FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga0–2
Hamburger SV — FC St. Pauli · 2. Bundesliga1–0
FC St. Pauli — Hamburger SV · 2. Bundesliga2–2
Hamburger SV — FC St. Pauli · 2. Bundesliga4–3
FC St. Pauli — Hamburger SV · 2. Bundesliga3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC St. Pauli favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Hamburger SV in 9 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC St. Pauli18 matchesHamburger SV18 matches
0.89 goals/matchGoals scored18/18▲ 0.94 goals/match
1.72 goals/matchGoals allowed18/18▲ 1.5 goals/match
0.79 xG/matchExpected goals18/18▲ 1.15 xG/match
10.2 shots/matchShots18/18▲ 13.1 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target18/18▲ 4.89 shots/match
46.2%Possession18/18● 47.3%
5 corners/match ●Corners18/183.67 corners/match
1.72 cards/matchCards18/182.61 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls18/1812.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 23 Jan 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC St. PauliHamburger SV
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-headFC St. Pauli — Hamburger SV
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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