PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 21 Dec 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeMewa ArenaFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFSV Mainz 05FC St. Pauli
Shots13 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target1 shots/match1 shots/match
Possession53%47%
Corners9 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls5 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: FSV Mainz 05's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.87 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.87 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FSV Mainz 05 have a visible home split

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.5 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FSV Mainz 05 favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · FC St. Pauli in 5 · 8 too close

0.87 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 15/150.87 goals/match
1.73 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 15/151.73 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 15/1510.5 shots/match
15.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 15/15▲11.8 shots/match
2.47 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 15/15▲3.4 shots/match
5.4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 15/155.33 shots/match
45.8%Possessionseason · 15/1547.5%
5.07 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/155.07 corners/match
4.33 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 15/154.87 corners/match
2.73 cards/matchCardsseason · 15/15▲1.8 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1510.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
7%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/15▲13%
47%Scoring frequencyseason · 15/15▲53%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FSV Mainz 0519.4
FC St. Pauli41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FSV Mainz 056.5
FC St. Pauli6.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FSV Mainz 0521.3
FC St. Pauli44.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FSV Mainz 0525
FC St. Pauli2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FSV Mainz 0580.5
FC St. Pauli38.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FSV Mainz 0558.3
FC St. Pauli58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FSV Mainz 0536.1
FC St. Pauli27.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲0.8 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.8 shots/match▲Shots5/58 shots/match
1.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲2.2 shots/match
38.6%Possession5/540.8%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls5/57.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.5 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.3 shots/matchShots10/109.5 shots/match
2.4 shots/matchShots on target10/102.3 shots/match
43.2%Possession10/1045.7%
4.2 corners/matchCorners10/104.6 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls10/108.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 15 matches
0.87 goals/matchGoals scored15/150.87 goals/match
1.73 goals/matchGoals allowed15/151.73 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/matchShots15/1510.5 shots/match
2.47 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲3.4 shots/match
45.8%Possession15/1547.5%
5.07 corners/matchCorners15/155.07 corners/match
2.73 cards/matchCards15/151.8 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls15/1510.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
0.63 goals/matchGoals scored8/80.63 goals/match
1.38 goals/matchGoals allowed8/81.38 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/match▲Shots8/89.38 shots/match
2.63 shots/match▲Shots on target8/82.13 shots/match
49.8%Possession8/844.4%
5.75 corners/matchCorners8/83.25 corners/match
2.13 cards/matchCards8/81.5 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls8/810.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.92 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 21 Dec 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFSV Mainz 05FC St. Pauli
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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