PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 25 Oct 2025, 16:30 UTCFull timeSignal Iduna ParkFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBorussia Dortmund1. FC Köln
Shots27 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target9 shots/match▲0 shots/match
Possession70%30%
Corners17 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Borussia Dortmund's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

1. FC Köln's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Borussia Dortmund have a visible home split

weak

Borussia Dortmund's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.3 shots/match13.5 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

1. FC Köln show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

1. FC Köln's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.5 shots/match▲ShotsBorussia Dortmund · 1. FC Köln12 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBorussia Dortmund1. FC KölnBaseline
Shots13.5 shots/match12 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against9.88 shots/match16.3 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Borussia Dortmund favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · 1. FC Köln in 0 · 5 too close

1.75 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 8/81.5 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 8/81.38 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 8/812 shots/match
9.88 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 8/816.3 shots/match
5.25 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 8/83.88 shots/match
2.88 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 8/85 shots/match
56.9%Possessionseason · 8/844.1%
6.38 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/84.5 corners/match
4.88 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 8/88.38 corners/match
1.88 cards/matchCardsseason · 8/81.88 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/89.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
63%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/825%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 8/888%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Borussia Dortmund80.6
1. FC Köln13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Borussia Dortmund74.1
1. FC Köln33.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Borussia Dortmund91.7
1. FC Köln43.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Borussia Dortmund19.4
1. FC Köln63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Borussia Dortmund47.2
1. FC Köln22.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Borussia Dortmund97.2
1. FC Köln36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Borussia Dortmund78.5
1. FC Köln25.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots5/510.4 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53 shots/match
53.2%Possession5/544.2%
8.2 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/58.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 8 matches
1.75 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81.5 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.38 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shots8/812 shots/match
5.25 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.88 shots/match
56.9%Possession8/844.1%
6.38 corners/matchCorners8/84.5 corners/match
1.88 cards/matchCards8/81.88 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls8/89.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 8 matches
1.75 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81.5 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.38 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shots8/812 shots/match
5.25 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.88 shots/match
56.9%Possession8/844.1%
6.38 corners/matchCorners8/84.5 corners/match
1.88 cards/matchCards8/81.88 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls8/89.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 5 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/51.2 goals/match
0.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.3 shots/match▲Shots4/510.8 shots/match
5.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/53.2 shots/match
60.3%Possession4/543%
9.25 corners/matchCorners4/54 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards4/51.8 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls4/58.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.12 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Oct 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBorussia Dortmund1. FC Köln
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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