PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 19 Oct 2025, 15:30 UTCFull timeMillerntor-StadionFull-time recap
0–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFC St. Pauli1899 Hoffenheim
Shots10 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession49%51%
Corners9 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match17 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.14 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.14 goals/match1.57 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

12.7 fouls/match▲FoulsFC St. Pauli · 1899 Hoffenheim15.3 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricFC St. Pauli1899 HoffenheimBaseline
Fouls12.7 fouls/match15.3 fouls/match11 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC St. Pauli favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · 1899 Hoffenheim in 5 · 6 too close

1.14 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 7/7▲1.71 goals/match
1.71 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/71.71 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/7▲13.3 shots/match
10.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/711.4 shots/match
4.71 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲5 shots/match
5.14 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/7▲4.57 shots/match
51.9%Possessionseason · 7/751.9%
5.57 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/75.86 corners/match
3.57 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/76.57 corners/match
1.86 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 7/72.14 cards/match
12.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/715.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/714%
57%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/7▲86%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC St. Pauli66.7
1899 Hoffenheim66.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC St. Pauli36.1
1899 Hoffenheim71.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC St. Pauli58.3
1899 Hoffenheim62
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC St. Pauli13.9
1899 Hoffenheim52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC St. Pauli45.9
1899 Hoffenheim72.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC St. Pauli69.4
1899 Hoffenheim80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC St. Pauli54.9
1899 Hoffenheim80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.2 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5 shots/match
52%Possession5/553%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls5/515.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches
1.14 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.71 goals/match
1.71 goals/matchGoals allowed7/71.71 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/matchShots7/7▲13.3 shots/match
4.71 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲5 shots/match
51.9%Possession7/751.9%
5.57 corners/matchCorners7/75.86 corners/match
1.86 cards/matchCards7/72.14 cards/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls7/715.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches
1.14 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.71 goals/match
1.71 goals/matchGoals allowed7/71.71 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/matchShots7/7▲13.3 shots/match
4.71 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲5 shots/match
51.9%Possession7/751.9%
5.57 corners/matchCorners7/75.86 corners/match
1.86 cards/matchCards7/72.14 cards/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls7/715.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲2.5 goals/match
2.25 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShots4/412 shots/match
5.5 shots/matchShots on target4/45.5 shots/match
51.5%Possession4/451.5%
7.5 corners/matchCorners4/45.25 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/42.25 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls4/415.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

15.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/115.9 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 19 Oct 2025, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFC St. Pauli1899 Hoffenheim
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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