PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 21 Sept 2025, 17:30 UTCFull timeSignal Iduna ParkFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBorussia DortmundVfL Wolfsburg
Shots12 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲0 shots/match
Possession56%44%
Corners9 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: VfL Wolfsburg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Borussia Dortmund have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

VfL Wolfsburg show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

VfL Wolfsburg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12 shots/match▲ShotsBorussia Dortmund · VfL Wolfsburg12.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBorussia DortmundVfL WolfsburgBaseline
Shots12 shots/match12.3 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against9.5 shots/match12.5 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Borussia Dortmund have recorded the higher season possession share.

61.3%▲PossessionBorussia Dortmund · VfL Wolfsburg47.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBorussia DortmundVfL WolfsburgBaseline
Possession61.3%47.8%50.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Borussia Dortmund favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · VfL Wolfsburg in 0 · 14 too close

2.25 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 4/41.75 goals/match
0.75 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 4/41.5 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12 shots/matchShotsseason · 4/412.3 shots/match
9.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 4/412.5 shots/match
6.25 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 4/43.5 shots/match
2.75 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 4/44.25 shots/match
61.3%Possessionseason · 4/447.8%
4.75 corners/matchCornersseason · 4/44.5 corners/match
4.75 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 4/46.25 corners/match
2 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/42.25 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 4/412.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
75%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 4/40%
100%Scoring frequencyseason · 4/475%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Borussia Dortmund91.7
VfL Wolfsburg30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Borussia Dortmund65.7
VfL Wolfsburg28.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Borussia Dortmund94.4
VfL Wolfsburg66.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Borussia Dortmund2.8
VfL Wolfsburg52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Borussia Dortmund44.5
VfL Wolfsburg59.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Borussia Dortmund44.4
VfL Wolfsburg36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Borussia Dortmund54.1
VfL Wolfsburg37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

4 / 4 matches
2.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41.75 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots4/412.3 shots/match
6.25 shots/match▲Shots on target4/43.5 shots/match
61.3%Possession4/447.8%
4.75 corners/matchCorners4/44.5 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards4/42.25 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls4/412.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

4 / 4 matches
2.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41.75 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots4/412.3 shots/match
6.25 shots/match▲Shots on target4/43.5 shots/match
61.3%Possession4/447.8%
4.75 corners/matchCorners4/44.5 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards4/42.25 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls4/412.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

4 / 4 matches
2.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41.75 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots4/412.3 shots/match
6.25 shots/match▲Shots on target4/43.5 shots/match
61.3%Possession4/447.8%
4.75 corners/matchCorners4/44.5 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards4/42.25 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls4/412.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 2 matches
—Goals scored2/2—
—Goals allowed2/2—
—Expected goals0/0—
—Shots2/2—
—Shots on target2/2—
—Possession2/2—
—Corners2/2—
—Cards2/2—
—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.17 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 21 Sept 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBorussia DortmundVfL Wolfsburg
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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