PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 17 May 2026, 19:00 UTCFull time

Lyon

0–4Full-time recap

Lens

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lyon's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Lyon's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lyon's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.56 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

strong

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Corners5.88 corners/match6.18 corners/match4.59 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Lens.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Rest days7 days4 days—
Matches last 14 days1 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lyon80.6
Lens58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lyon65.7
Lens89.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lyon76.9
Lens84.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lyon19.4
Lens97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lyon69.4
Lens52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 90%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lyon80.6
Lens91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lyon73.6
Lens82
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricLyonLens
Goals scored2 goals/match5 obs.1.8 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed2.2 goals/match5 obs.1.2 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals1.83 xG/match5 obs.1.71 xG/match5 obs.
Shots13.8 shots/match5 obs.18.8 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target5.6 shots/match5 obs.6 shots/match5 obs.
Possession48.8%5 obs.53%5 obs.
Corners9.2 corners/match5 obs.7.2 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—1 obs.—1 obs.
Fouls9.6 fouls/match5 obs.11.2 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricLyonLens
Goals scored1.4 goals/match10 obs.2.1 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed1.4 goals/match10 obs.1.4 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals1.46 xG/match9 obs.1.94 xG/match9 obs.
Shots13.3 shots/match10 obs.21.1 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target4.7 shots/match10 obs.6.6 shots/match10 obs.
Possession54.8%10 obs.56.2%10 obs.
Corners6.9 corners/match10 obs.7.5 corners/match10 obs.
Cards2 cards/match4 obs.1.67 cards/match3 obs.
Fouls11.2 fouls/match10 obs.10.8 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

34 / 34 matches
MetricLyonLens
Goals scored1.56 goals/match34 obs.1.94 goals/match34 obs.
Goals allowed1.18 goals/match34 obs.1.03 goals/match34 obs.
Expected goals1.46 xG/match9 obs.1.94 xG/match9 obs.
Shots12.3 shots/match34 obs.16.5 shots/match34 obs.
Shots on target4.71 shots/match34 obs.5.56 shots/match34 obs.
Possession54.6%34 obs.51.1%34 obs.
Corners5.88 corners/match34 obs.6.18 corners/match34 obs.
Cards2.18 cards/match28 obs.2.15 cards/match27 obs.
Fouls13 fouls/match34 obs.12.7 fouls/match34 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

17 / 17 matches
MetricLyonLens
Goals scored1.76 goals/match17 obs.1.82 goals/match17 obs.
Goals allowed1.06 goals/match17 obs.1.29 goals/match17 obs.
Expected goals1.83 xG/match5 obs.1.43 xG/match5 obs.
Shots13.6 shots/match17 obs.14.6 shots/match17 obs.
Shots on target4.82 shots/match17 obs.4.71 shots/match17 obs.
Possession56.1%17 obs.50%17 obs.
Corners6.53 corners/match17 obs.5.59 corners/match17 obs.
Cards1.85 cards/match13 obs.2.54 cards/match13 obs.
Fouls13.3 fouls/match17 obs.12.8 fouls/match17 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason1.56 goals/match64th1.94 goals/match92th1.42 goals/match34 / 34
Goals allowedseason1.18 goals/match19th1.03 goals/match8th1.4 goals/match34 / 34
Expected goalsseason1.46 xG/match47th1.94 xG/match92th1.47 xG/match9 / 9
Expected goals allowedseason1.37 xG/match36th1.36 xG/match31th1.45 xG/match9 / 9
Shotsseason12.3 shots/match58th16.5 shots/match92th11.5 shots/match34 / 34
Shots allowedseason11.9 shots/match31th11.1 shots/match25th12.5 shots/match34 / 34
Shots on targetseason4.71 shots/match75th5.56 shots/match86th4.14 shots/match34 / 34
Shots on target allowedseason3.88 shots/match19th3.5 shots/match14th4.24 shots/match34 / 34
Possessionseason54.6%81th51.1%58th49.7%34 / 34
Cornersseason5.88 corners/match81th6.18 corners/match92th4.59 corners/match34 / 34
Corners allowedseason4.91 corners/match53th4.15 corners/match19th4.87 corners/match34 / 34
Cardsseason2.18 cards/match58th2.15 cards/match47th2.15 cards/match28 / 27
Foulsseason13 fouls/match81th12.7 fouls/match58th12.5 fouls/match34 / 34
Clean-sheet frequencyseason44%92th35%81th26%34 / 34
Scoring frequencyseason82%83th82%83th71%34 / 34

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures7 days—4 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures1 matches—2 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
TeamsLyonLens
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 May 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v3