PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 17 May 2026, 19:00 UTCFull time

Lille

0–2Full-time recap

Auxerre

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Auxerre's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Auxerre's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Auxerre's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Auxerre's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Auxerre show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Auxerre's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots13.6 shots/match10.7 shots/match11.5 shots/match
Shots against9.06 shots/match11.9 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Lille have recorded the higher season possession share.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Possession55.8%43.9%49.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lille86.1
Auxerre25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lille67.6
Auxerre20.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lille89.8
Auxerre54.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lille52.8
Auxerre47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lille43
Auxerre80.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 90%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lille75
Auxerre52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lille59.7
Auxerre43.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricLilleAuxerre
Goals scored0.6 goals/match5 obs.2.2 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed0.6 goals/match5 obs.1.4 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals1.16 xG/match5 obs.0.93 xG/match5 obs.
Shots12 shots/match5 obs.11.8 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target4.2 shots/match5 obs.5.4 shots/match5 obs.
Possession60%5 obs.42.2%5 obs.
Corners5.6 corners/match5 obs.4.2 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—1 obs.—1 obs.
Fouls9.4 fouls/match5 obs.12.8 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricLilleAuxerre
Goals scored1.5 goals/match10 obs.1.5 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed0.6 goals/match10 obs.0.9 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals1.54 xG/match9 obs.0.91 xG/match9 obs.
Shots12 shots/match10 obs.10.5 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target4.7 shots/match10 obs.4.3 shots/match10 obs.
Possession56.2%10 obs.42.5%10 obs.
Corners4.4 corners/match10 obs.4.2 corners/match10 obs.
Cards2.33 cards/match3 obs.1.67 cards/match3 obs.
Fouls9.4 fouls/match10 obs.14.2 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

34 / 34 matches
MetricLilleAuxerre
Goals scored1.53 goals/match34 obs.1 goals/match34 obs.
Goals allowed1.09 goals/match34 obs.1.29 goals/match34 obs.
Expected goals1.54 xG/match9 obs.0.91 xG/match9 obs.
Shots13.6 shots/match34 obs.10.7 shots/match34 obs.
Shots on target4.68 shots/match34 obs.3.5 shots/match34 obs.
Possession55.8%34 obs.43.9%34 obs.
Corners5.71 corners/match34 obs.4.74 corners/match34 obs.
Cards2.26 cards/match27 obs.2.41 cards/match27 obs.
Fouls10.9 fouls/match34 obs.13.7 fouls/match34 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

17 / 17 matches
MetricLilleAuxerre
Goals scored1.41 goals/match17 obs.0.94 goals/match17 obs.
Goals allowed1 goals/match17 obs.1.59 goals/match17 obs.
Expected goals1.84 xG/match4 obs.0.8 xG/match5 obs.
Shots14.8 shots/match17 obs.9.94 shots/match17 obs.
Shots on target4.76 shots/match17 obs.3.24 shots/match17 obs.
Possession56.8%17 obs.44%17 obs.
Corners6.35 corners/match17 obs.4 corners/match17 obs.
Cards1.92 cards/match13 obs.2.5 cards/match12 obs.
Fouls10.5 fouls/match17 obs.13.9 fouls/match17 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason1.53 goals/match58th1 goals/match25th1.42 goals/match34 / 34
Goals allowedseason1.09 goals/match14th1.29 goals/match28th1.4 goals/match34 / 34
Expected goalsseason1.54 xG/match75th0.91 xG/match3th1.47 xG/match9 / 9
Expected goals allowedseason0.6 xG/match3th1.49 xG/match58th1.45 xG/match9 / 9
Shotsseason13.6 shots/match75th10.7 shots/match14th11.5 shots/match34 / 34
Shots allowedseason9.06 shots/match8th11.9 shots/match36th12.5 shots/match34 / 34
Shots on targetseason4.68 shots/match69th3.5 shots/match22th4.14 shots/match34 / 34
Shots on target allowedseason3.32 shots/match8th4.65 shots/match72th4.24 shots/match34 / 34
Possessionseason55.8%86th43.9%25th49.7%34 / 34
Cornersseason5.71 corners/match75th4.74 corners/match53th4.59 corners/match34 / 34
Corners allowedseason3.79 corners/match14th4.71 corners/match42th4.87 corners/match34 / 34
Cardsseason2.26 cards/match67th2.41 cards/match75th2.15 cards/match27 / 27
Foulsseason10.9 fouls/match19th13.7 fouls/match86th12.5 fouls/match34 / 34
Clean-sheet frequencyseason38%86th26%50th26%34 / 34
Scoring frequencyseason71%50th53%3th71%34 / 34

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures7 days—7 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures1 matches—1 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
TeamsLilleAuxerre
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 May 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v3