PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 17 May 2026, 19:00 UTCFull time

Lorient

0–2Full-time recap

Le Havre

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Le Havre's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Le Havre's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Le Havre's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match0.94 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lorient30.6
Le Havre41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lorient43.5
Le Havre22.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lorient62.1
Le Havre55.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lorient58.3
Le Havre36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lorient11.1
Le Havre62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 87%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lorient2.8
Le Havre33.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lorient23.6
Le Havre43.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricLorientLe Havre
Goals scored2 goals/match5 obs.1.6 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed1.4 goals/match5 obs.1.4 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals1.55 xG/match5 obs.1.3 xG/match5 obs.
Shots11.2 shots/match5 obs.9.6 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target4.4 shots/match5 obs.4 shots/match5 obs.
Possession43.8%5 obs.45.2%5 obs.
Corners4.2 corners/match5 obs.3.6 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—0 obs.—1 obs.
Fouls8.2 fouls/match5 obs.15.6 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricLorientLe Havre
Goals scored1.4 goals/match10 obs.1.2 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed1.3 goals/match10 obs.1.4 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals1.41 xG/match9 obs.1.22 xG/match9 obs.
Shots10 shots/match10 obs.11.2 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target4.1 shots/match10 obs.3.8 shots/match10 obs.
Possession45.1%10 obs.48.6%10 obs.
Corners3.8 corners/match10 obs.3.4 corners/match10 obs.
Cards—1 obs.2 cards/match4 obs.
Fouls9.1 fouls/match10 obs.14.5 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

34 / 34 matches
MetricLorientLe Havre
Goals scored1.41 goals/match34 obs.0.94 goals/match34 obs.
Goals allowed1.5 goals/match34 obs.1.29 goals/match34 obs.
Expected goals1.41 xG/match9 obs.1.22 xG/match9 obs.
Shots11.3 shots/match34 obs.10.8 shots/match34 obs.
Shots on target3.94 shots/match34 obs.3.59 shots/match34 obs.
Possession45.4%34 obs.46.8%34 obs.
Corners3.5 corners/match34 obs.4.24 corners/match34 obs.
Cards1.76 cards/match25 obs.2 cards/match28 obs.
Fouls9.56 fouls/match34 obs.13.7 fouls/match34 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

17 / 17 matches
MetricLorientLe Havre
Goals scored1.82 goals/match17 obs.0.71 goals/match17 obs.
Goals allowed1.47 goals/match17 obs.1.53 goals/match17 obs.
Expected goals1.45 xG/match5 obs.1.26 xG/match5 obs.
Shots11.9 shots/match17 obs.9.65 shots/match17 obs.
Shots on target4.41 shots/match17 obs.3.29 shots/match17 obs.
Possession45.8%17 obs.46.8%17 obs.
Corners3.24 corners/match17 obs.3.65 corners/match17 obs.
Cards1.92 cards/match12 obs.2.36 cards/match14 obs.
Fouls9.65 fouls/match17 obs.14 fouls/match17 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason1.41 goals/match47th0.94 goals/match17th1.42 goals/match34 / 34
Goals allowedseason1.5 goals/match69th1.29 goals/match28th1.4 goals/match34 / 34
Expected goalsseason1.41 xG/match42th1.22 xG/match36th1.47 xG/match9 / 9
Expected goals allowedseason1.29 xG/match14th1.47 xG/match53th1.45 xG/match9 / 9
Shotsseason11.3 shots/match42th10.8 shots/match19th11.5 shots/match34 / 34
Shots allowedseason11.1 shots/match19th12.9 shots/match58th12.5 shots/match34 / 34
Shots on targetseason3.94 shots/match42th3.59 shots/match31th4.14 shots/match34 / 34
Shots on target allowedseason3.94 shots/match25th4.18 shots/match47th4.24 shots/match34 / 34
Possessionseason45.4%31th46.8%42th49.7%34 / 34
Cornersseason3.5 corners/match3th4.24 corners/match33th4.59 corners/match34 / 34
Corners allowedseason5.35 corners/match75th4.82 corners/match47th4.87 corners/match34 / 34
Cardsseason1.76 cards/match14th2 cards/match33th2.15 cards/match25 / 28
Foulsseason9.56 fouls/match8th13.7 fouls/match92th12.5 fouls/match34 / 34
Clean-sheet frequencyseason21%14th24%33th26%34 / 34
Scoring frequencyseason71%50th59%19th71%34 / 34

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures7 days—7 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures1 matches—1 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
TeamsLorientLe Havre
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 May 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v3